Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 34¢ · $940 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$940.18
$51.31
41.7¢ → 34.2¢
-18% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Noavg 50¢ | $322.96 | $371.45 | -$126.25 | 49% 1842-1910 (3752) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 34.2¢ | $115.3 | $193.83 | +$78.53 | 53% 29396-26298 (55694) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 35.2¢ | $181.36 | $149.94 | +$40.12 | 35% 18318-34086 (52404) |
 LucerysCTR | Noavg 35.6¢ | $68.91 | $111.26 | +$42.35 | 77% 12654-3874 (16528) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $58.14 | $51.5 | +$1.36 | 20% 2607-10331 (12938) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $48.74 | $23.45 | +$1.79 | 26% 506-1406 (1912) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.5¢ | $14.88 | $18.02 | +$3.14 | 50% 706-713 (1419) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.5¢ | $36.89 | $10.37 | +$3.98 | 18% 351-1601 (1952) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Noavg 22.6¢ | $4.07 | $10.36 | +$6.29 | 72% 13988-5402 (19390) |
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$322.96
Value
$371.45
PnL
-$126.25
Record
49%
1842-1910 (3752)
balthazarCTRInvested
$115.3
Value
$193.83
PnL
+$78.53
Record
53%
29396-26298 (55694)
Invested
$181.36
Value
$149.94
PnL
+$40.12
Record
35%
18318-34086 (52404)
LucerysCTRInvested
$68.91
Value
$111.26
PnL
+$42.35
Record
77%
12654-3874 (16528)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$58.14
Value
$51.5
PnL
+$1.36
Record
20%
2607-10331 (12938)
Invested
$48.74
Value
$23.45
PnL
+$1.79
Record
26%
506-1406 (1912)
Invested
$14.88
Value
$18.02
PnL
+$3.14
Record
50%
706-713 (1419)
Invested
$36.89
Value
$10.37
PnL
+$3.98
Record
18%
351-1601 (1952)
Invested
$4.07
Value
$10.36
PnL
+$6.29
Record
72%
13988-5402 (19390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.