Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and a Democrat not win the 2028 presidential election?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 63¢ · $474 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$474.08

Combined PnL

$104.14

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 62.7¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$365.42

Total Shares477

Combined PnL+$111.47

Yes3 traders

Total Value$108.66

Total Shares412

Combined PnL-$7.33

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 53.2¢	$179	$257.49	+$78.65	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$69.2	$54.73	-$1	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$54.22	$46.91	-$7.31	57% 284-213 (497)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$43.7	$37.15	-$0.16	26% 506-1406 (1912)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 76¢	$23.81	$24	+$0.19	50% 706-713 (1419)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$19.23	$20.07	+$0.84	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$27.35	$13.21	-$0.14	18% 351-1601 (1952)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$43.54	$10.89	+$31.88	72% 13988-5402 (19390)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.1¢	$6.03	$7.02	+$0.99	41% 2052-2927 (4979)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$2.4	$2.61	+$0.22	20% 2607-10331 (12938)

balthazar

Invested

$179

Value

$257.49

PnL

+$78.65

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.2

Value

$54.73

PnL

-$1

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

MenacingTurtleCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.22

Value

$46.91

PnL

-$7.31

Record

57%

284-213 (497)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$43.7

Value

$37.15

PnL

-$0.16

Record

26%

506-1406 (1912)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$23.81

Value

$24

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

706-713 (1419)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$19.23

Value

$20.07

PnL

+$0.84

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$27.35

Value

$13.21

PnL

-$0.14

Record

18%

351-1601 (1952)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$43.54

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$31.88

Record

72%

13988-5402 (19390)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$0.99

Record

41%

2052-2927 (4979)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.22

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.6%

62.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.