Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-11-08?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$1.25

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 67.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,289

Combined PnL+$29.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$573.01

Total Shares1,755

Combined PnL-$27.82

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 65.2¢	$882.86	$896.67	+$13.81	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$744.04	$738.85	-$5.19	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.1¢	$561.96	$573.99	+$12.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.9¢	$182.08	$164.86	-$17.22
P1 P1kasoCTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$508.98	$487.48	-$21.5	62% 941-565 (1506)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$280.01	$275.44	-$4.57	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.1¢	$156.01	$161.69	+$5.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.4¢	$124	$113.75	-$10.25
MA MadridTime	Noavg 63.8¢	$240.84	$250.87	+$10.03	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 64¢	$208.08	$204.54	+$0.01	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$130.91	$136.02	+$5.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$73.68	$68.52	-$5.16
LI Limousin	Noavg 64.2¢	$131.77	$132.46	+$0.69	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 64¢	$86.76	$87.44	+$0.68	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 64¢	$86.67	$87.35	+$0.68	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$90	$83.75	-$6.25	53% 1126-988 (2114)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 64¢	$80	$83.13	+$3.13	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.78	-$0.08	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 63¢	$1.7	$1.77	+$0.07	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

Flaznorp

Invested

$882.86

Value

$896.67

PnL

+$13.81

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$744.04

Value

$738.85

PnL

-$5.19

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

No$561.9666.1¢+$12.03

Yes$182.0835.9¢-$17.22

P1kasoCTR

Yes

Invested

$508.98

Value

$487.48

PnL

-$21.5

Record

62%

941-565 (1506)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$280.01

Value

$275.44

PnL

-$4.57

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

No$156.0165.1¢+$5.68

Yes$12435.4¢-$10.25

MadridTime

Invested

$240.84

Value

$250.87

PnL

+$10.03

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$208.08

Value

$204.54

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Both legs:

No$130.9164¢+$5.17

Yes$73.6836¢-$5.16

Limousin

Invested

$131.77

Value

$132.46

PnL

+$0.69

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$86.76

Value

$87.44

PnL

+$0.68

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$86.67

Value

$87.35

PnL

+$0.68

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

TheComboConnoisseurCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$83.75

PnL

-$6.25

Record

53%

1126-988 (2114)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$80

Value

$83.13

PnL

+$3.13

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.