Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FK Mladá Boleslav win on 2026-09-06?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 6

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sun, Sep 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 41.5¢

-58% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,944

Combined PnL+$105.96

Yes2 traders

Total Value$793.4

Total Shares1,912

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56.8¢	$999.67	$985.11	+$28.54	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
PV pvc975CTR	Yesavg 99.9¢	$1.8K	$764.98	$-1.1K	98% 14684-327 (15011)
RN1	Noavg 15.4¢	$27.42	$104.37	+$76.96	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Noavg 58¢	$44.66	$45.04	+$0.38	57% 4172-3145 (7317)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Yesavg 95.9¢	$65.64	$28.42	-$37.22	76% 4413-1366 (5779)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.93	+$0.07	74% 2420-861 (3281)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$999.67

Value

$985.11

PnL

+$28.54

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

pvc975CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,841.49

Value

$764.98

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

98%

14684-327 (15011)

RN1

Invested

$27.42

Value

$104.37

PnL

+$76.96

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

Bagwell306<$100

Invested

$44.66

Value

$45.04

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

4172-3145 (7317)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.64

Value

$28.42

PnL

-$37.22

Record

76%

4413-1366 (5779)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.07

Record

74%

2420-861 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.