Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 47¢ · $91 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$91.3
$7.09
Research grade
AvoidNo at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.2¢ | $30.15 | $34.5 | +$4.35 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $18.06 | $18.4 | +$0.34 | 31% 2801-6226 (9027) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $10.4 | +$0 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $9.6 | +$0.4 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $8.2 | $9.2 | +$1 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $8.2 | $9.2 | +$1 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
Invested
$30.15
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$4.35
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$18.06
Value
$18.4
PnL
+$0.34
Record
31%
2801-6226 (9027)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3127-4493 (7620)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0.4
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$8.2
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$8.2
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$1
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.