Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $77 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$77.11
-$32.49
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $55.66 | $39.02 | -$10.64 | 40% 3231-4852 (8083) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 27% 947-2550 (3497) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $8 | +$0 | 26% 868-2503 (3371) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $45.34 | $0.06 | -$14.38 | 37% 3439-5885 (9324) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.62 | $0.02 | -$3.6 | 44% 1109-1422 (2531) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.7 | $0.01 | -$2.68 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.15 | $0.01 | -$0.14 | 25% 1248-3703 (4951) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.07 | $0.01 | -$1.07 | 35% 512-942 (1454) |
Invested
$55.66
Value
$39.02
PnL
-$10.64
Record
40%
3231-4852 (8083)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
947-2550 (3497)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$8
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
868-2503 (3371)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$45.34
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$14.38
Record
37%
3439-5885 (9324)
Invested
$3.62
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.6
Record
44%
1109-1422 (2531)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.68
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.14
Record
25%
1248-3703 (4951)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.07
Record
35%
512-942 (1454)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.