Will CZ post 0-19 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 77¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 17

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$231.79

Combined PnL

-$26.72

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 77¢

-12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$226.04

Total Shares290

Combined PnL-$27.88

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.75

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$1.16

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 88¢	$132	$117	-$15	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 87¢	$34.62	$31.04	-$3.58	44% 1079-1378 (2457)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$25.9	$23.4	-$2.5	50% 4547-4458 (9005)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 88¢	$26.4	$23.4	-$3	8% 29-324 (353)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.58	$15.76	-$1.82	— 1-9 (10)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 88¢	$10.38	$9.2	-$1.18	79% 231-63 (294)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 88¢	$7.04	$6.24	-$0.8	17% 54-273 (327)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.25	$3.3	+$1.05	25% 1201-3514 (4715)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.34	$2.45	+$0.11	41% 3040-4429 (7469)

Lucerys

Invested

$132

Value

$117

PnL

-$15

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$34.62

Value

$31.04

PnL

-$3.58

Record

44%

1079-1378 (2457)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$25.9

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$2.5

Record

50%

4547-4458 (9005)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$3

Record

29-324 (353)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$17.58

Value

$15.76

PnL

-$1.82

Record

—

1-9 (10)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.38

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$1.18

Record

79%

231-63 (294)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.04

Value

$6.24

PnL

-$0.8

Record

17%

54-273 (327)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$1.05

Record

25%

1201-3514 (4715)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.11

Record

41%

3040-4429 (7469)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.