Wisconsin Badgers vs. Green Bay Phoenix (W)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Green Bay Phoenix (78%) · Green Bay Phoenix at 87¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Wisconsin Badgers14¢Green Bay Phoenix86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Green Bay Phoenix

Consensus Traders

Green Bay Phoenix 78%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$15.07

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 86.5¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGreen Bay Phoenix at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Green Bay Phoenix

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin Badgers14%

Green Bay Phoenix87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Green Bay Phoenix7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,100

Combined PnL+$449.31

Wisconsin Badgers2 traders

Total Value$214.05

Total Shares2,518

Combined PnL-$434.24

Green Bay Phoenix — 78%Wisconsin Badgers — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Green Bay Phoenix. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGreen Bay Phoenix 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGreen Bay Phoenix 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Green Bay Phoenix 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Green Bay Phoenixavg 74.4¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$283.87	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
NO NotJump	Green Bay Phoenixavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	52% 852-801 (1653)
RN1	Green Bay Phoenixavg 74.5¢	$366.91	$450.5	+$83.59	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
SL SlickRick123	Green Bay Phoenixavg 73¢	$269.38	$337.66	+$68.27	35% 378-716 (1094)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Wisconsin Badgersavg 25.8¢	$648.19	$213.94	-$434.25	39% 563-895 (1458)
dips.<$100	Green Bay Phoenixavg 73¢	$14.8	$18.55	+$3.75	47% 993-1122 (2115)
PA Pan9X<$100	Green Bay Phoenixavg 75.4¢	$18.85	$18.3	+$4.2	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
SM smithagent<$100	Green Bay Phoenixavg 73¢	$22.72	$12.27	+$5.62	45% 679-837 (1516)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Wisconsin Badgersavg 8¢	$0.1	$0.11	+$0.01	58% 3629-2629 (6258)

38791873984189

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$1,234.67

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$283.87

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

NotJump

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

RN1

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$366.91

Value

$450.5

PnL

+$83.59

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

SlickRick123

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$269.38

Value

$337.66

PnL

+$68.27

Record

35%

378-716 (1094)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Wisconsin Badgers

Invested

$648.19

Value

$213.94

PnL

-$434.25

Record

39%

563-895 (1458)

dips.<$100

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$14.8

Value

$18.55

PnL

+$3.75

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

Pan9X<$100

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$18.85

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$4.2

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

smithagent<$100

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$22.72

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$5.62

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Wisconsin Badgers

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

3629-2629 (6258)

Research grade

AvoidGreen Bay Phoenix at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Green Bay Phoenix

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Green Bay Phoenix. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGreen Bay Phoenix 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGreen Bay Phoenix 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Green Bay Phoenix 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Green Bay Phoenix wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.