Villanova Wildcats vs. Fairfield Stags (W)
2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Villanova Wildcats (20%) · Villanova Wildcats at 86¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Villanova Wildcats
10
Villanova Wildcats 20%
$3.9K
$287.25
60.7¢ → 85.5¢
+41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidVillanova Wildcats at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 60.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$365.63 | 41% 744-1054 (1798) |
 RN1CTR | Fairfield Stagsavg 38.5¢ | $493.77 | $442.68 | -$51.09 | 54% 6042-5119 (11161) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Fairfield Stagsavg 38.7¢ | $478.56 | $426.91 | -$51.65 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
SL SlickRick123CTR | Fairfield Stagsavg 39.7¢ | $93.04 | $108.93 | +$15.89 | 38% 500-824 (1324) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Fairfield Stagsavg 41.8¢ | $112.74 | $103.88 | -$8.86 | 53% 7546-6651 (14197) |
SM smithagentCTR | Fairfield Stagsavg 38¢ | $82.48 | $100.89 | +$18.41 | 46% 888-1048 (1936) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | Fairfield Stagsavg 43.5¢ | $89.36 | $95.49 | +$6.13 | 47% 376-418 (794) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Fairfield Stagsavg 41.1¢ | $31.12 | $26.15 | -$4.97 | 50% 2197-2203 (4400) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Villanova Wildcatsavg 63¢ | $25.2 | $21.2 | -$4 | 83% 991-206 (1197) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Fairfield Stagsavg 41.6¢ | $14.99 | $16.74 | +$1.75 | 58% 4023-2943 (6966) |
Invested
$2,156.63
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$365.63
Record
41%
744-1054 (1798)
RN1CTRInvested
$493.77
Value
$442.68
PnL
-$51.09
Record
54%
6042-5119 (11161)
Invested
$478.56
Value
$426.91
PnL
-$51.65
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$93.04
Value
$108.93
PnL
+$15.89
Record
38%
500-824 (1324)
Invested
$112.74
Value
$103.88
PnL
-$8.86
Record
53%
7546-6651 (14197)
Invested
$82.48
Value
$100.89
PnL
+$18.41
Record
46%
888-1048 (1936)
Invested
$89.36
Value
$95.49
PnL
+$6.13
Record
47%
376-418 (794)
Invested
$31.12
Value
$26.15
PnL
-$4.97
Record
50%
2197-2203 (4400)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$25.2
Value
$21.2
PnL
-$4
Record
83%
991-206 (1197)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$16.74
PnL
+$1.75
Record
58%
4023-2943 (6966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Villanova Wildcats — $2.5K
RN1
CTRFairfield Stags — $442.68
38791873984189
CTRFairfield Stags — $426.91
SlickRick123
CTRFairfield Stags — $108.93
cigarettes
CTRFairfield Stags — $103.88
smithagent
CTRFairfield Stags — $100.89
thirdt1me
CTRFairfield Stags — $95.49
Pan9X
CTRFairfield Stags — $26.15
ARTEM-DZYUBA
Villanova Wildcats — $21.2
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRFairfield Stags — $16.74