Connecticut Huskies vs. Louisville Cardinals (W)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Connecticut Huskies (11%) · Connecticut Huskies at 71¢ · $431 held · ended Nov 15

Connecticut Huskies71¢Louisville Cardinals29¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

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Connecticut Huskies

Consensus Traders

Connecticut Huskies 11%

Total Value

$430.94

Combined PnL

-$9.95

Research grade

AvoidConnecticut Huskies at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Connecticut Huskies

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Connecticut Huskies71%

Louisville Cardinals30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Connecticut Huskies1 trader

Total Value$188.37

Total Shares258

Combined PnL-$18.63

Louisville Cardinals8 traders

Total Value$242.57

Total Shares1,272

Combined PnL+$8.67

Connecticut Huskies — 11%Louisville Cardinals — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Connecticut Huskiesavg 80.2¢	$207	$188.37	-$18.63	42% 771-1083 (1854)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 18.4¢	$96.03	$98.81	+$2.78	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
RN1CTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 17¢	$57.8	$64.64	+$6.84	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
dips.CTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 18¢	$48.42	$51.11	+$2.69	48% 1348-1450 (2798)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 17¢	$17	$13	-$4	47% 384-428 (812)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 18¢	$7.02	$7.41	+$0.39	46% 919-1089 (2008)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 18¢	$4.14	$4.37	+$0.23	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 10¢	$1.49	$1.94	+$0.45	50% 204-200 (404)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Louisville Cardinalsavg 20¢	$2	$1.3	-$0.7	50% 2219-2233 (4452)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Connecticut Huskies

Invested

$207

Value

$188.37

PnL

-$18.63

Record

42%

771-1083 (1854)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$96.03

Value

$98.81

PnL

+$2.78

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

RN1CTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$57.8

Value

$64.64

PnL

+$6.84

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

dips.CTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$48.42

Value

$51.11

PnL

+$2.69

Record

48%

1348-1450 (2798)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$17

Value

$13

PnL

-$4

Record

47%

384-428 (812)

smithagentCTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$0.39

Record

46%

919-1089 (2008)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

204-200 (404)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Louisville Cardinals

Invested

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

Research grade

AvoidConnecticut Huskies at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Connecticut Huskies

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Connecticut Huskies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.