Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs (W)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Mary's Gaels (33%) · Saint Mary's Gaels at 80¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Saint Mary's Gaels80¢Alabama A&M Bulldogs20¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Saint Mary's Gaels

Consensus Traders

Saint Mary's Gaels 33%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$132.13

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 79.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSaint Mary's Gaels at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Mary's Gaels

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Saint Mary's Gaels80%

Alabama A&M Bulldogs21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Mary's Gaels4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,479

Combined PnL+$124.88

Alabama A&M Bulldogs8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,695

Combined PnL+$7.25

Saint Mary's Gaels — 33%Alabama A&M Bulldogs — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Saint Mary's Gaels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSaint Mary's Gaels 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaint Mary's Gaels 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlabama A&M Bulldogs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alabama A&M Bulldogs 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 71.9¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$248.26	42% 774-1086 (1860)
38 38791873984189CTR	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 27.3¢	$504.85	$508.07	+$3.22	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
NO NotJump	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 50¢	$525	$399	-$126	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
RN1CTR	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 28¢	$327.32	$322.01	-$5.31	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 27.8¢	$151.55	$160.82	+$9.26	47% 387-434 (821)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 71.2¢	$25.43	$30.71	+$5.28	83% 1042-214 (1256)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 91¢	$22.99	$20.34	-$2.65	47% 691-793 (1484)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 27¢	$13.5	$13.75	+$0.25	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 28.7¢	$11.5	$11.8	+$0.3	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 28¢	$9.52	$9.35	-$0.17	46% 923-1097 (2020)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.03	-$0.48	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Alabama A&M Bulldogsavg 23¢	$0.46	$0.63	+$0.17	38% 521-841 (1362)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$2,084.37

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$248.26

Record

42%

774-1086 (1860)

38791873984189CTR

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$504.85

Value

$508.07

PnL

+$3.22

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

NotJump

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$525

Value

$399

PnL

-$126

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

RN1CTR

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$327.32

Value

$322.01

PnL

-$5.31

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

thirdt1meCTR

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$151.55

Value

$160.82

PnL

+$9.26

Record

47%

387-434 (821)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$25.43

Value

$30.71

PnL

+$5.28

Record

83%

1042-214 (1256)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$22.99

Value

$20.34

PnL

-$2.65

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

smithagentCTR<$100

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$0.17

Record

46%

923-1097 (2020)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.48

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.17

Record

38%

521-841 (1362)

Research grade

AvoidSaint Mary's Gaels at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Mary's Gaels

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Saint Mary's Gaels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSaint Mary's Gaels 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaint Mary's Gaels 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlabama A&M Bulldogs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Alabama A&M Bulldogs 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Mary's Gaels wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.