Portland State Vikings vs. California-San Diego Tritons (W)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold California-San Diego Tritons (33%) · California-San Diego Tritons at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Portland State Vikings11¢California-San Diego Tritons89¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

California-San Diego Tritons

Consensus Traders

California-San Diego Tritons 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$233.41

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 88.8¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCalifornia-San Diego Tritons at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

California-San Diego Tritons

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Portland State Vikings11%

California-San Diego Tritons89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

California-San Diego Tritons3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,237

Combined PnL-$261.19

Portland State Vikings6 traders

Total Value$622.64

Total Shares2,149

Combined PnL+$494.6

California-San Diego Tritons — 33%Portland State Vikings — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on California-San Diego Tritons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCalifornia-San Diego Tritons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPortland State Vikings 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPortland State Vikings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Portland State Vikings 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 94.3¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$253.31	56% 41-32 (73)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 50¢	$525	$619.5	+$94.5	54% 475-399 (874)
└ California-San Diego Tritons leg	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 50¢	$262.5	$491.92	+$229.42
└ Portland State Vikings leg	Portland State Vikingsavg 50¢	$262.5	$127.58	-$134.92
38 38791873984189CTR	Portland State Vikingsavg 5.8¢	$111.48	$492.22	+$392.97	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
RN1CTR<$100	Portland State Vikingsavg 5.6¢	$14.3	$76.53	+$62.24	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
poshposhCTR<$100	Portland State Vikingsavg 3.8¢	$2.93	$18.73	+$15.8	47% 549-607 (1156)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Portland State Vikingsavg 5.4¢	$2.7	$15.02	+$12.33	45% 160-198 (358)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 96.2¢	$100.22	$13.99	-$7.23	59% 2981-2065 (5046)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Portland State Vikingsavg 6.3¢	$5.67	$12.87	+$7.2	42% 353-481 (834)
dips.CTR<$100	Portland State Vikingsavg 6.3¢	$3.2	$7.26	+$4.06	45% 544-659 (1203)
PA Pan9X<$100	California-San Diego Tritonsavg 94.2¢	$7.16	$6.5	-$0.65	49% 1083-1137 (2220)

pagliacci4

California-San Diego Tritons

Invested

$2,085.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$253.31

Record

56%

41-32 (73)

NotJumpARB<$100

California-San Diego Tritons

Invested

$525

Value

$619.5

PnL

+$94.5

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Both legs:

California-San Diego Tritons$262.550¢+$229.42

Portland State Vikings$262.550¢-$134.92

38791873984189CTR

Portland State Vikings

Invested

$111.48

Value

$492.22

PnL

+$392.97

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

RN1CTR<$100

Portland State Vikings

Invested

$14.3

Value

$76.53

PnL

+$62.24

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

poshposhCTR<$100

Portland State Vikings

Invested

$2.93

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$15.8

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Portland State Vikings

Invested

$2.7

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$12.33

Record

45%

160-198 (358)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

California-San Diego Tritons

Invested

$100.22

Value

$13.99

PnL

-$7.23

Record

59%

2981-2065 (5046)

smithagentCTR<$100

Portland State Vikings

Invested

$5.67

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$7.2

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

dips.CTR<$100

Portland State Vikings

Invested

$3.2

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$4.06

Record

45%

544-659 (1203)

Pan9X<$100

California-San Diego Tritons

Invested

$7.16

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$0.65

Record

49%

1083-1137 (2220)

Research grade

AvoidCalifornia-San Diego Tritons at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

California-San Diego Tritons

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on California-San Diego Tritons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCalifornia-San Diego Tritons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPortland State Vikings 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPortland State Vikings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Portland State Vikings 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that California-San Diego Tritons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.3%

88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.