Oregon Ducks vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes (W)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grand Canyon Antelopes (83%) · Grand Canyon Antelopes at 94¢ · $548 held · ended Nov 10

Oregon Ducks6¢Grand Canyon Antelopes94¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Consensus Traders

Grand Canyon Antelopes 83%

Total Value

$547.76

Combined PnL

$242.32

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 93.7¢

+76% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrand Canyon Antelopes at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grand Canyon Antelopes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oregon Ducks6%

Grand Canyon Antelopes94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grand Canyon Antelopes5 traders

Total Value$528.76

Total Shares568

Combined PnL+$228.82

Oregon Ducks1 trader

Total Value$19

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$13.5

Grand Canyon Antelopes — 83%Oregon Ducks — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Grand Canyon Antelopes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOregon Ducks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrand Canyon Antelopes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Grand Canyon Antelopes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Grand Canyon Antelopesavg 54¢	$276.95	$405.14	+$183.6	48% 603-645 (1248)
PA Pan9X<$100	Grand Canyon Antelopesavg 59.4¢	$38.6	$56.1	+$21	47% 329-371 (700)
dips.<$100	Grand Canyon Antelopesavg 47¢	$34.54	$45.12	+$11.73	41% 159-232 (391)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Oregon Ducksavg 11¢	$5.5	$19	+$13.5	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Grand Canyon Antelopesavg 33¢	$4.51	$15.4	+$10.89	63% 2176-1291 (3467)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Grand Canyon Antelopesavg 54¢	$5.4	$7	+$1.6	20% 67-271 (338)

38791873984189

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Invested

$276.95

Value

$405.14

PnL

+$183.6

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Pan9X<$100

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Invested

$38.6

Value

$56.1

PnL

+$21

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

dips.<$100

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Invested

$34.54

Value

$45.12

PnL

+$11.73

Record

41%

159-232 (391)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Oregon Ducks

Invested

$5.5

Value

$19

PnL

+$13.5

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Invested

$4.51

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$10.89

Record

63%

2176-1291 (3467)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

+$1.6

Record

20%

67-271 (338)

Research grade

AvoidGrand Canyon Antelopes at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grand Canyon Antelopes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Grand Canyon Antelopes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOregon Ducks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrand Canyon Antelopes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Grand Canyon Antelopes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grand Canyon Antelopes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.