Missouri State Bears vs. Wyoming Cowboys (W)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Missouri State Bears (83%) · Missouri State Bears at 50¢ · $494 held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Missouri State Bears
6
Missouri State Bears 83%
$494.45
$11.4
78.9¢ → 50¢
-37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMissouri State Bears at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Missouri State Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79¢ | $198.29 | $248.49 | +$50.2 | 53% 70327-61884 (132211) |
38 38791873984189 | Missouri State Bearsavg 78.8¢ | $147.52 | $185.22 | +$37.7 | 48% 70392-76030 (146422) |
 dips.<$100 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79¢ | $30.02 | $37.62 | +$7.6 | 46% 12241-14177 (26418) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79¢ | $11.06 | $13.86 | +$2.8 | 53% 3797-3399 (7196) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Missouri State Bearsavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $4.95 | +$1 | 52% 27371-24877 (52248) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Wyoming Cowboysavg 21.4¢ | $92.21 | $4.31 | -$87.9 | 56% 39470-31118 (70588) |
RN1Invested
$198.29
Value
$248.49
PnL
+$50.2
Record
53%
70327-61884 (132211)
Invested
$147.52
Value
$185.22
PnL
+$37.7
Record
48%
70392-76030 (146422)
dips.<$100Invested
$30.02
Value
$37.62
PnL
+$7.6
Record
46%
12241-14177 (26418)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$13.86
PnL
+$2.8
Record
53%
3797-3399 (7196)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
27371-24877 (52248)
Invested
$92.21
Value
$4.31
PnL
-$87.9
Record
56%
39470-31118 (70588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Missouri State Bears — $248.49
38791873984189
Missouri State Bears — $185.22
dips.
Missouri State Bears — $37.62
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Missouri State Bears — $13.86
Pan9X
Missouri State Bears — $4.95
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Wyoming Cowboys — $4.31