Idaho Vandals vs. Washington State Cougars (W)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Washington State Cougars (71%) · Washington State Cougars at 98¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 9
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Avoid
Washington State Cougars
7
Washington State Cougars 71%
$6.3K
$1.9K
57.1¢ → 97.5¢
+71% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidWashington State Cougars at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Washington State Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Washington State Cougarsavg 56.5¢ | $2.5K | $3.7K | +$1.7K | — |
 RN1 | Washington State Cougarsavg 58.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$622.75 | — |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Idaho Vandalsavg 47.1¢ | $2.1K | $483.79 | -$486.35 | — |
PA Pan9X | Washington State Cougarsavg 56¢ | $108.81 | $155.5 | +$57.93 | — |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Idaho Vandalsavg 54¢ | $71.68 | $70.15 | -$1.52 | — |
 dips.<$100 | Washington State Cougarsavg 54.4¢ | $60.34 | $46.46 | +$13.61 | — |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Washington State Cougarsavg 53.2¢ | $21 | $15.65 | +$4.47 | — |
Invested
$2,462.16
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
—
RN1Invested
$1,233.06
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$622.75
Record
—
Invested
$2,058.67
Value
$483.79
PnL
-$486.35
Record
—
Invested
$108.81
Value
$155.5
PnL
+$57.93
Record
—
Invested
$71.68
Value
$70.15
PnL
-$1.52
Record
—
dips.<$100Invested
$60.34
Value
$46.46
PnL
+$13.61
Record
—
Invested
$21
Value
$15.65
PnL
+$4.47
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
38791873984189
Washington State Cougars — $3.7K
RN1
Washington State Cougars — $1.9K
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRIdaho Vandals — $483.79
Pan9X
Washington State Cougars — $155.5
omnibus-076daa
CTRIdaho Vandals — $70.15
dips.
Washington State Cougars — $46.46
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Washington State Cougars — $15.65