Howard Bison vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Marshall Thundering Herd (83%) · Marshall Thundering Herd at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Howard Bison1¢Marshall Thundering Herd99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Marshall Thundering Herd

Consensus Traders

Marshall Thundering Herd 83%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$406.68

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 99¢

+38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMarshall Thundering Herd at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marshall Thundering Herd

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Howard Bison1%

Marshall Thundering Herd99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marshall Thundering Herd5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,349

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Howard Bison1 trader

Total Value$30.23

Total Shares3,023

Combined PnL-$828.09

Marshall Thundering Herd — 83%Howard Bison — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Marshall Thundering Herd. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHoward Bison 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarshall Thundering Herd 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marshall Thundering Herd 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 71.3¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$897.13	48% 947-1017 (1964)
RN1	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 71.8¢	$782.15	$1.1K	+$301.27	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
PA Pan9X<$100	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 73.9¢	$66.52	$82.59	+$22.58	49% 443-470 (913)
CI cigarettes<$100	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 78.1¢	$25.85	$32.93	+$7.07	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Howard Bisonavg 28.4¢	$858.32	$30.23	-$828.09	25% 114-348 (462)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 71.5¢	$17.15	$23.88	+$6.73	62% 2344-1436 (3780)

38791873984189

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$2,283.57

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$897.13

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

RN1

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$782.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$301.27

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Pan9X<$100

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$66.52

Value

$82.59

PnL

+$22.58

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

cigarettes<$100

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$25.85

Value

$32.93

PnL

+$7.07

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Howard Bison

Invested

$858.32

Value

$30.23

PnL

-$828.09

Record

25%

114-348 (462)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$17.15

Value

$23.88

PnL

+$6.73

Record

62%

2344-1436 (3780)

Research grade

AvoidMarshall Thundering Herd at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Marshall Thundering Herd

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Marshall Thundering Herd. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHoward Bison 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedMarshall Thundering Herd 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marshall Thundering Herd 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marshall Thundering Herd wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.