Fairfield Stags vs. Seton Hall Pirates (W)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Fairfield Stags (89%) · Fairfield Stags at 84¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 13

Fairfield Stags84¢Seton Hall Pirates16¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fairfield Stags

Consensus Traders

Fairfield Stags 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$920.89

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 84.3¢

+27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidFairfield Stags at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fairfield Stags

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Fairfield Stags84%

Seton Hall Pirates16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fairfield Stags8 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,815

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Seton Hall Pirates1 trader

Total Value$373.12

Total Shares2,973

Combined PnL-$597.47

Fairfield Stags — 89%Seton Hall Pirates — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Fairfield Stags. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFairfield Stags 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFairfield Stags 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Fairfield Stags 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Fairfield Stagsavg 66.4¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$544.64	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
SL SlickRick123	Fairfield Stagsavg 64.7¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$542	32% 256-556 (812)
38 38791873984189	Fairfield Stagsavg 69.6¢	$777.46	$1.0K	+$283.51	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 50¢	$525	$745.5	+$220.5	54% 545-473 (1018)
└ Fairfield Stags leg	Fairfield Stagsavg 50¢	$262.5	$504	+$241.5
└ Seton Hall Pirates leg	Seton Hall Piratesavg 50¢	$262.5	$241.5	-$21
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Seton Hall Piratesavg 32.6¢	$970.59	$373.12	-$597.47	34% 362-700 (1062)
CI cigarettes	Fairfield Stagsavg 70.4¢	$167.88	$235.83	+$67.95	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Fairfield Stagsavg 52¢	$53.55	$98.87	+$45.32	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
PA Pan9X<$100	Fairfield Stagsavg 68.5¢	$37.89	$54.72	+$16.83	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Fairfield Stagsavg 70¢	$35	$49.48	+$14.48	46% 183-214 (397)
SM smithagent<$100	Fairfield Stagsavg 65.8¢	$7.24	$10.88	+$3.64	42% 419-573 (992)

RN1

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$1,110.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$544.64

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

SlickRick123

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$1,024.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$542

Record

32%

256-556 (812)

38791873984189

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$777.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$283.51

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

NotJumpARB<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$525

Value

$745.5

PnL

+$220.5

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Both legs:

Fairfield Stags$262.550¢+$241.5

Seton Hall Pirates$262.550¢-$21

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$970.59

Value

$373.12

PnL

-$597.47

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

cigarettes

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$167.88

Value

$235.83

PnL

+$67.95

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$53.55

Value

$98.87

PnL

+$45.32

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

Pan9X<$100

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$37.89

Value

$54.72

PnL

+$16.83

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

thirdt1me<$100

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$35

Value

$49.48

PnL

+$14.48

Record

46%

183-214 (397)

smithagent<$100

Fairfield Stags

Invested

$7.24

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$3.64

Record

42%

419-573 (992)

Research grade

AvoidFairfield Stags at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fairfield Stags

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Fairfield Stags. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFairfield Stags 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFairfield Stags 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Fairfield Stags 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fairfield Stags wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.9%

84.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.