Duke Blue Devils vs. North Texas Mean Green (W)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Duke Blue Devils (50%) · Duke Blue Devils at 51¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Duke Blue Devils51¢North Texas Mean Green49¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Duke Blue Devils

Consensus Traders

Duke Blue Devils 50%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$842.38

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 50.9¢

-11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Duke Blue Devils51%

North Texas Mean Green49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duke Blue Devils5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares15,888

Combined PnL-$918.95

North Texas Mean Green5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,860

Combined PnL+$76.57

Duke Blue Devils — 50%North Texas Mean Green — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Duke Blue Devilsavg 54.2¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$223.29	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
38 38791873984189	Duke Blue Devilsavg 58.4¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$436.29	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 47.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.63	64% 663-377 (1040)
FO forecastication4	Duke Blue Devilsavg 66¢	$1.2K	$948.81	-$255.36	50% 1566-1572 (3138)
unknowngamblerCTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 48.4¢	$291.54	$300.35	+$8.82	57% 442-333 (775)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 41¢	$244.18	$290.93	+$46.75	64% 1253-708 (1961)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 48.6¢	$198.84	$199.4	+$0.56	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
PA Pan9X<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 58¢	$33.63	$29.67	-$3.96	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
FY fydiCTR<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 6¢	$1.89	$15.71	+$13.82	51% 373-361 (734)
RL RLWG<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 53¢	$2.57	$2.51	-$0.06	49% 8555-8731 (17286)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$4,296.81

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$223.29

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

38791873984189

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$3,514.28

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$436.29

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$1,067.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.63

Record

64%

663-377 (1040)

forecastication4

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$1,204.17

Value

$948.81

PnL

-$255.36

Record

50%

1566-1572 (3138)

unknowngamblerCTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$291.54

Value

$300.35

PnL

+$8.82

Record

57%

442-333 (775)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$244.18

Value

$290.93

PnL

+$46.75

Record

64%

1253-708 (1961)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$198.84

Value

$199.4

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

Pan9X<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$33.63

Value

$29.67

PnL

-$3.96

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

fydiCTR<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$1.89

Value

$15.71

PnL

+$13.82

Record

51%

373-361 (734)

RLWG<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duke Blue Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

50.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

188.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.