Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Northern Kentucky Norse, while the market favors Chattanooga Mocs (63%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Chattanooga Mocs vs. Northern Kentucky Norse (W)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Northern Kentucky Norse (50%) · Northern Kentucky Norse at 37¢ · $866 held · ended Nov 12

Chattanooga Mocs63¢Northern Kentucky Norse37¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Northern Kentucky Norse

Consensus Traders

Northern Kentucky Norse 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$865.67

Combined PnL

$51.3

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 37¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorthern Kentucky Norse at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Northern Kentucky Norse

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Chattanooga Mocs 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chattanooga Mocs63%

Northern Kentucky Norse37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Northern Kentucky Norse4 traders

Total Value$257.68

Total Shares525

Combined PnL+$50.48

Chattanooga Mocs4 traders

Total Value$30.66

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$0.82

Northern Kentucky Norse — 50%Chattanooga Mocs — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Chattanooga Mocsavg 58.4¢	$1.5K	$577.34	-$80.32	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
└ Chattanooga Mocs leg	Chattanooga Mocsavg 58.4¢	$484.1	$443.84	-$88.74
└ Northern Kentucky Norse leg	Northern Kentucky Norseavg 44.9¢	$128.77	$133.5	+$8.42
LuccaF7CTR	Northern Kentucky Norseavg 40¢	$199.68	$249.85	+$50.17	— 2-3 (5)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chattanooga Mocsavg 57.9¢	$25.72	$18.05	+$1.78	49% 1072-1133 (2205)
dips.<$100	Chattanooga Mocsavg 76¢	$6.08	$5.4	-$0.68	45% 530-649 (1179)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Chattanooga Mocsavg 58¢	$3.74	$3.84	+$0.1	45% 157-194 (351)
RN1CTR<$100	Northern Kentucky Norseavg 21¢	$3.45	$3.45	-$0	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
SM smithagent<$100	Chattanooga Mocsavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.38	-$0.38	43% 344-463 (807)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Northern Kentucky Norseavg 44¢	$3.08	$3.26	+$0.17	59% 2945-2044 (4989)
poshposhCTR<$100	Northern Kentucky Norseavg 44¢	$0.99	$1.13	+$0.14	47% 522-581 (1103)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Chattanooga Mocs

Invested

$1,496.21

Value

$577.34

PnL

-$80.32

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

Both legs:

Chattanooga Mocs$484.158.4¢-$88.74

Northern Kentucky Norse$128.7744.9¢+$8.42

LuccaF7CTR

Northern Kentucky Norse

Invested

$199.68

Value

$249.85

PnL

+$50.17

Record

—

2-3 (5)

Pan9X<$100

Chattanooga Mocs

Invested

$25.72

Value

$18.05

PnL

+$1.78

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

dips.<$100

Chattanooga Mocs

Invested

$6.08

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.68

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

thirdt1me<$100

Chattanooga Mocs

Invested

$3.74

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.1

Record

45%

157-194 (351)

RN1CTR<$100

Northern Kentucky Norse

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

smithagent<$100

Chattanooga Mocs

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Northern Kentucky Norse

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0.17

Record

59%

2945-2044 (4989)

poshposhCTR<$100

Northern Kentucky Norse

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

Research grade

AvoidNorthern Kentucky Norse at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Northern Kentucky Norse

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Chattanooga Mocs 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Northern Kentucky Norse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.