Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 89% to 90.5%?
Resolved No. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Yes 67%
$22.78
-$113
Smart Money Signal
4 of 20 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $139.7 | — | -$139.67 | 45% 406-496 (902) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $539.17 | — | +$47.86 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $19.48 | $12.78 | -$6.7 | 20% 2587-10256 (12843) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $17.87 | — | -$17.87 | 79% 411-108 (519) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $10 | +$1.3 | 59% 11831-8157 (19988) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 27% 6838-18773 (25611) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | — | — | -$0.95 | 72% 13948-5333 (19281) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | — | — | -$2.54 | 49% 5973-6261 (12234) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $13.77 | — | +$2.29 | 53% 29253-26162 (55415) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $63.74 | — | +$2.34 | 77% 12521-3667 (16188) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 17% 1239-5868 (7107) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 3681-3532 (7213) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | — | — | +$1.8 | 61% 14862-9318 (24180) |
 CoinTrick<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 98% 4291-105 (4396) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 25% 1718-5214 (6932) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 42% 5392-7314 (12706) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $22.2 | — | +$0 | 42% 7010-9803 (16813) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | — | — | -$0.13 | 47% 8350-9514 (17864) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $4.37 | — | -$0.37 | 32% 2511-5383 (7894) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | No | $2.57 | — | +$2.05 | 18% 340-1570 (1910) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$139.7
Value
—
PnL
-$139.67
Record
45%
406-496 (902)
Invested
$539.17
Value
—
PnL
+$47.86
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$19.48
Value
$12.78
PnL
-$6.7
Record
20%
2587-10256 (12843)
Invested
$17.87
Value
—
PnL
-$17.87
Record
79%
411-108 (519)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.3
Record
59%
11831-8157 (19988)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
27%
6838-18773 (25611)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.95
Record
72%
13948-5333 (19281)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$2.54
Record
49%
5973-6261 (12234)
balthazar<$100Invested
$13.77
Value
—
PnL
+$2.29
Record
53%
29253-26162 (55415)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$63.74
Value
—
PnL
+$2.34
Record
77%
12521-3667 (16188)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
1239-5868 (7107)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3681-3532 (7213)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$1.8
Record
61%
14862-9318 (24180)
CoinTrick<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
4291-105 (4396)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
1718-5214 (6932)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
5392-7314 (12706)
Invested
$22.2
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
7010-9803 (16813)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.13
Record
47%
8350-9514 (17864)
Invested
$4.37
Value
—
PnL
-$0.37
Record
32%
2511-5383 (7894)
Invested
$2.57
Value
—
PnL
+$2.05
Record
18%
340-1570 (1910)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
YoungAlphaGoat
CTRYes — $0
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $0
LornaPredicts
No — $12.78
0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e
CTRYes — $0
qwen300.fund
No — $10
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271
CTRYes — $0
e46m3
No — $0
0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033
No — $0
balthazar
No — $0
Lucerys
No — $0