Counter-Strike: your end vs Damajuana - Map 1 Winner

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Damajuana (22%) · Damajuana at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

your end29¢Damajuana71¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Damajuana

Consensus Traders

Damajuana 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$538.13

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 71¢

-5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDamajuana at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Damajuana

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

your end29%

Damajuana71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Damajuana2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,558

Combined PnL-$11.91

your end7 traders

Total Value$364.35

Total Shares1,719

Combined PnL-$526.21

Damajuana — 22%your end — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111	Damajuanaavg 74.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$19.65	35% 21-39 (60)
alpheclabs2CTR	your endavg 49¢	$721	$144.2	-$209.09	46% 39-45 (84)
38 38791873984189CTR	your endavg 53.7¢	$284.01	$115.54	-$158.43	49% 383-404 (787)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Damajuanaavg 85.5¢	$111.87	$99.36	-$11.56	21% 60-222 (282)
└ Damajuana leg	Damajuanaavg 85.5¢	$81.82	$68.93	-$12.89
└ your end leg	your endavg 23.1¢	$25.2	$30.43	+$1.34
VeryLucky888CTR	your endavg 62.2¢	$300	$73.5	-$113.25	49% 60-63 (123)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	your endavg 33¢	$64.35	$18.43	-$45.92	20% 37-151 (188)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Damajuanaavg 31¢	$5	$12.73	+$7.74	68% 47-22 (69)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	your endavg 18.2¢	$8.61	$9.95	+$1.34	57% 43-32 (75)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	your endavg 24¢	$2.2	$1.92	-$0.28	57% 16-12 (28)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	your endavg 18¢	$1.25	$0.8	-$0.59	50% 185-187 (372)

319113331313111

Damajuana

Invested

$2,599.7

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$19.65

Record

35%

21-39 (60)

alpheclabs2CTR

your end

Invested

$721

Value

$144.2

PnL

-$209.09

Record

46%

39-45 (84)

38791873984189CTR

your end

Invested

$284.01

Value

$115.54

PnL

-$158.43

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Damajuana

Invested

$111.87

Value

$99.36

PnL

-$11.56

Record

21%

60-222 (282)

Both legs:

Damajuana$81.8285.5¢-$12.89

your end$25.223.1¢+$1.34

VeryLucky888CTR

your end

Invested

$300

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$113.25

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

your end

Invested

$64.35

Value

$18.43

PnL

-$45.92

Record

20%

37-151 (188)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Damajuana

Invested

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$7.74

Record

68%

47-22 (69)

lryyyCTR<$100

your end

Invested

$8.61

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$1.34

Record

57%

43-32 (75)

shiifooCTR<$100

your end

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.28

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

your end

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

185-187 (372)

Research grade

NeutralDamajuana at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Damajuana

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Damajuana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.1%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.