Counter-Strike: ex-Yawara vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold ex-Yawara (25%) · ex-Yawara at 61¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
ex-Yawara
8
ex-Yawara 25%
$5.0K
$52.08
59.8¢ → 60.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Neutralex-Yawara at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on ex-Yawara. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | ex-Yawaraavg 59.7¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$53.93 | 54% 143-120 (263) |
 fyrsken | ex-Yawaraavg 61¢ | $487.99 | $483.99 | -$4 | 47% 27-30 (57) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Isurusavg 39.4¢ | $348.2 | $349.5 | +$1.31 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Isurusavg 39¢ | $92.82 | $94.01 | +$1.19 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Isurusavg 39.9¢ | $58.9 | $58.26 | -$0.64 | 30% 71-166 (237) |
BI biying88888CTR<$100 | Isurusavg 39¢ | $52.26 | $52.26 | +$0 | 42% 166-231 (397) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Isurusavg 39.2¢ | $38.01 | $38.31 | +$0.3 | 49% 1072-1133 (2205) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Isurusavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.95 | +$0 | 66% 1764-907 (2671) |
Invested
$3,907.53
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$53.93
Record
54%
143-120 (263)
fyrskenInvested
$487.99
Value
$483.99
PnL
-$4
Record
47%
27-30 (57)
Invested
$348.2
Value
$349.5
PnL
+$1.31
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$92.82
Value
$94.01
PnL
+$1.19
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$58.9
Value
$58.26
PnL
-$0.64
Record
30%
71-166 (237)
Invested
$52.26
Value
$52.26
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
166-231 (397)
Invested
$38.01
Value
$38.31
PnL
+$0.3
Record
49%
1072-1133 (2205)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
1764-907 (2671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.