Counter-Strike: ex-Yawara vs BARCA (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BARCA (50%) · BARCA at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

ex-Yawara38¢BARCA62¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BARCA

Consensus Traders

BARCA 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$356.21

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 62.5¢

-21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

ex-Yawara38%

BARCA63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-Yawara5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,220

Combined PnL+$410.86

BARCA5 traders

Total Value$635.81

Total Shares871

Combined PnL-$54.65

ex-Yawara — 50%BARCA — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on BARCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Yawara 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000BARCA 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarmCTR	ex-Yawaraavg 18.8¢	$284.48	$408.16	+$123.67	58% 69-51 (120)
GA Gaditima	BARCAavg 81¢	$405	$365	-$40	49% 400-411 (811)
lma0o0o0oCTR	ex-Yawaraavg 16.8¢	$122.25	$280.5	+$158.25	52% 54-49 (103)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	BARCAavg 50¢	$262.5	$280.31	+$17.81	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ BARCA leg	BARCAavg 50¢	$131.25	$191.63	+$60.38
└ ex-Yawara leg	ex-Yawaraavg 50¢	$131.25	$88.68	-$42.57
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	ex-Yawaraavg 20.1¢	$148.54	$250.24	+$101.7	54% 181-153 (334)
38 38791873984189	BARCAavg 77.1¢	$200.5	$189.8	-$10.7	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	BARCAavg 77.9¢	$162.59	$185.75	+$23.16	55% 211-171 (382)
└ ex-Yawara leg	ex-Yawaraavg 24.4¢	$75.28	$115.74	+$40.46
└ BARCA leg	BARCAavg 77.9¢	$87.3	$70.01	-$17.29
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100	ex-Yawaraavg 24.9¢	$60.98	$88.38	+$27.4	62% 207-129 (336)
PA Pan9X	BARCAavg 77.6¢	$108.78	$52.15	-$2.58	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
FE ferdinand2<$100	BARCAavg 77¢	$15.4	$14.6	-$0.8	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
FL Flaznorp<$100	BARCAavg 75.9¢	$14.83	$14.26	-$0.57	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	ex-Yawaraavg 38¢	$12.67	$12.5	-$0.17	39% 1595-2514 (4109)

JuiceFarmCTR

ex-Yawara

Invested

$284.48

Value

$408.16

PnL

+$123.67

Record

58%

69-51 (120)

Gaditima

BARCA

Invested

$405

Value

$365

PnL

-$40

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

lma0o0o0oCTR

ex-Yawara

Invested

$122.25

Value

$280.5

PnL

+$158.25

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

NotJumpARB<$100

BARCA

Invested

$262.5

Value

$280.31

PnL

+$17.81

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

BARCA$131.2550¢+$60.38

ex-Yawara$131.2550¢-$42.57

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

ex-Yawara

Invested

$148.54

Value

$250.24

PnL

+$101.7

Record

54%

181-153 (334)

38791873984189

BARCA

Invested

$200.5

Value

$189.8

PnL

-$10.7

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

319113331313111ARB<$100

BARCA

Invested

$162.59

Value

$185.75

PnL

+$23.16

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

Both legs:

ex-Yawara$75.2824.4¢+$40.46

BARCA$87.377.9¢-$17.29

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100

ex-Yawara

Invested

$60.98

Value

$88.38

PnL

+$27.4

Record

62%

207-129 (336)

Pan9X

BARCA

Invested

$108.78

Value

$52.15

PnL

-$2.58

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

ferdinand2<$100

BARCA

Invested

$15.4

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

Flaznorp<$100

BARCA

Invested

$14.83

Value

$14.26

PnL

-$0.57

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

ex-Yawara

Invested

$12.67

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on BARCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Yawara 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000BARCA 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BARCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.