Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold WW Team, while the market favors ex-Zero Tenacity (68%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold WW Team (33%) · WW Team at 33¢ · $832 held · ends Nov 15

WW Team33¢ex-Zero Tenacity67¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

WW Team

Consensus Traders

WW Team 33%

Total Value

$831.94

Combined PnL

$8.5

Smart Money Entry

32.1¢ → 32.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWW Team at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

WW Team

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors ex-Zero Tenacity 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

WW Team33%

ex-Zero Tenacity68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

WW Team3 traders

Total Value$721.63

Total Shares2,225

Combined PnL+$7.48

ex-Zero Tenacity6 traders

Total Value$110.31

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$1.02

WW Team — 33%ex-Zero Tenacity — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on WW Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Zero Tenacity 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000ex-Zero Tenacity 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarmCTR	WW Teamavg 32¢	$625.29	$635.11	+$9.82	56% 44-34 (78)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	WW Teamavg 34¢	$75.04	$70.72	-$4.32	8% 41-491 (532)
KA Kaczka<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 68¢	$61	$61	-$0	4% 9-192 (201)
OD Oddstorm<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 72¢	$15.78	$16.01	+$0.23	32% 99-208 (307)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 68¢	$16.01	$15.89	-$0.12	46% 496-589 (1085)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	WW Teamavg 28¢	$13.82	$15.8	+$1.97	36% 443-803 (1246)
GA Gaditima<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 65¢	$7.43	$7.77	+$0.34	48% 278-297 (575)
FE ferdinand2<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 64¢	$6.4	$6.8	+$0.4	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
FL Flaznorp<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 64¢	$2.67	$2.84	+$0.17	49% 3844-4007 (7851)

JuiceFarmCTR

WW Team

Invested

$625.29

Value

$635.11

PnL

+$9.82

Record

56%

44-34 (78)

gt7238CTR<$100

WW Team

Invested

$75.04

Value

$70.72

PnL

-$4.32

Record

41-491 (532)

Kaczka<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$61

Value

$61

PnL

-$0

Record

9-192 (201)

Oddstorm<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$15.78

Value

$16.01

PnL

+$0.23

Record

32%

99-208 (307)

omnibus-076daa<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$16.01

Value

$15.89

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

496-589 (1085)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

WW Team

Invested

$13.82

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$1.97

Record

36%

443-803 (1246)

Gaditima<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$7.43

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

278-297 (575)

ferdinand2<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

Flaznorp<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$2.67

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Research grade

NeutralWW Team at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

WW Team

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors ex-Zero Tenacity 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on WW Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Zero Tenacity 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000ex-Zero Tenacity 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that WW Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.