Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA - Map 2 Winner

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Wildcard (64%) · Wildcard at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1

Wildcard>99¢BARCA<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wildcard

Consensus Traders

Wildcard 64%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralWildcard at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wildcard

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Wildcard100%

BARCA0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wildcard7 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,505

Combined PnL+$1.3K

BARCA4 traders

Total Value$279.34

Total Shares982

Combined PnL-$69.27

Wildcard — 64%BARCA — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Wildcard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBARCA 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBARCA 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000BARCA 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Wildcardavg 63.4¢	$2.4K	$3.7K	+$1.4K	52% 1263-1146 (2409)
LO looppau	Wildcardavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 11171-71 (11242)
II iii252	Wildcardavg 88.5¢	$3.2K	$1.7K	-$269.77	57% 1143-875 (2018)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Wildcardavg 80.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$28.41	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
AA aaaa298	Wildcardavg 89.3¢	$1.6K	$279.57	+$130.06	59% 792-554 (1346)
SP spartachioCTR	BARCAavg 36¢	$214.2	$208.25	-$5.95	48% 703-758 (1461)
poshposh	Wildcardavg 77.6¢	$95.64	$123.21	+$27.57	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100	BARCAavg 35¢	$70	$71	+$1	53% 1107-975 (2082)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Wildcardavg 96¢	$4.8	$5	+$0.2	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BARCAavg 34¢	$34	$0.05	-$33.95	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	BARCAavg 35¢	$30.41	$0.04	-$30.37	50% 24946-24626 (49572)

JohnLKellyJr

Wildcard

Invested

$2,362.72

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

1263-1146 (2409)

looppau

Wildcard

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

11171-71 (11242)

iii252

Wildcard

Invested

$3,248.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$269.77

Record

57%

1143-875 (2018)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Wildcard

Invested

$1,135.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$28.41

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

aaaa298

Wildcard

Invested

$1,620.95

Value

$279.57

PnL

+$130.06

Record

59%

792-554 (1346)

spartachioCTR

BARCA

Invested

$214.2

Value

$208.25

PnL

-$5.95

Record

48%

703-758 (1461)

poshposh

Wildcard

Invested

$95.64

Value

$123.21

PnL

+$27.57

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$70

Value

$71

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

1107-975 (2082)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Wildcard

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$34

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$33.95

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

sentrioCTR<$100

BARCA

Invested

$30.41

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$30.37

Record

50%

24946-24626 (49572)

Research grade

NeutralWildcard at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Wildcard

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Wildcard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBARCA 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBARCA 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000BARCA 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wildcard wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.