Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs The Last Resort - Map 2 Winner
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold The Last Resort (75%) · The Last Resort at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
The Last Resort
4
The Last Resort 75%
2 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$2.87
Research grade
NeutralThe Last Resort at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on The Last Resort. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111ARB<$100 | The Last Resortavg 50.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$0.32 | 54% 75-64 (139) |
| └ The Last Resort leg | The Last Resortavg 50.2¢ | $671.9 | $903.81 | +$231.9 | |
| └ Walczaki leg | Walczakiavg 55.8¢ | $556.62 | $324.4 | -$232.23 | |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100 | The Last Resortavg 49.6¢ | $783.59 | $839.06 | +$55.47 | 64% 63-35 (98) |
| └ The Last Resort leg | The Last Resortavg 49.6¢ | $449.75 | $630.37 | +$180.62 | |
| └ Walczaki leg | Walczakiavg 48.8¢ | $333.84 | $208.69 | -$125.15 | |
PA pauleta23<$100 | The Last Resortavg 45¢ | $23.05 | $23.83 | +$0.78 | 31% 210-477 (687) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Walczakiavg 53¢ | $10.8 | $7.44 | -$3.36 | 60% 648-431 (1079) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | The Last Resortavg 35¢ | $5 | $4.71 | -$0.29 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | The Last Resortavg 33¢ | $0.62 | $0.62 | -$0 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
Invested
$1,228.53
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
75-64 (139)
Both legs:
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100Invested
$783.59
Value
$839.06
PnL
+$55.47
Record
64%
63-35 (98)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.05
Value
$23.83
PnL
+$0.78
Record
31%
210-477 (687)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$7.44
PnL
-$3.36
Record
60%
648-431 (1079)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.71
PnL
-$0.29
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.