Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Walczaki, while the market favors The Last Resort (75%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs The Last Resort - Map 1 Winner

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Walczaki (71%) · Walczaki at 26¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Walczaki26¢The Last Resort74¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Walczaki

Consensus Traders

Walczaki 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$54.15

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 25.5¢

-58% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWalczaki at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Walczaki

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors The Last Resort 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Walczaki26%

The Last Resort75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Walczaki5 traders

Total Value$76.01

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$59.81

The Last Resort2 traders

Total Value$19.34

Total Shares23

Combined PnL+$5.66

Walczaki — 71%The Last Resort — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Walczaki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWalczaki 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Walczaki 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Walczakiavg 65.5¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$233.03	54% 75-64 (139)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 50.6¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$492.85
└ Walczaki leg	Walczakiavg 65.5¢	$1.3K	$525.64	-$725.88
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Walczakiavg 56.4¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$77.9	64% 63-35 (98)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 46.3¢	$666.53	$1.1K	+$392.41
└ Walczaki leg	Walczakiavg 56.4¢	$886.48	$416.18	-$470.3
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Walczakiavg 56¢	$22.45	$23.5	+$1.05	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Walczakiavg 64¢	$23.76	$21.15	-$2.61	45% 233-284 (517)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Walczakiavg 53.4¢	$25.55	$14.66	-$9.56	31% 210-476 (686)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Walczakiavg 66.7¢	$60.29	$14.45	-$45.84	28% 161-409 (570)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	The Last Resortavg 37.6¢	$5	$11.3	+$6.31	41% 3141-4503 (7644)
SH shiifoo<$100	The Last Resortavg 87¢	$8.69	$8.04	-$0.65	62% 1325-796 (2121)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Walczakiavg 34¢	$5.1	$2.25	-$2.85	60% 648-431 (1079)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$2,393.37

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$233.03

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$1,141.8650.6¢+$492.85

Walczaki$1,251.5165.5¢-$725.88

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$1,553.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$77.9

Record

64%

63-35 (98)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$666.5346.3¢+$392.41

Walczaki$886.4856.4¢-$470.3

38791873984189CTR<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$22.45

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$1.05

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

lryyyCTR<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$23.76

Value

$21.15

PnL

-$2.61

Record

45%

233-284 (517)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$25.55

Value

$14.66

PnL

-$9.56

Record

31%

210-476 (686)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$60.29

Value

$14.45

PnL

-$45.84

Record

28%

161-409 (570)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$6.31

Record

41%

3141-4503 (7644)

shiifoo<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$0.65

Record

62%

1325-796 (2121)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$5.1

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.85

Record

60%

648-431 (1079)

Research grade

AvoidWalczaki at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Walczaki

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors The Last Resort 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Walczaki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWalczaki 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Walczaki 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Walczaki wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.