Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BakS eSports, while the market favors Virtus.pro (64%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (38%) · BakS eSports at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Virtus.pro64¢BakS eSports36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 38%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$88.25

Smart Money Entry

33.6¢ → 36.5¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Virtus.pro 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Virtus.pro64%

BakS eSports37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,920

Combined PnL+$88.83

Virtus.pro5 traders

Total Value$504.54

Total Shares773

Combined PnL-$0.58

BakS eSports — 38%Virtus.pro — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBakS eSports 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Virtus.pro 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	BakS eSportsavg 34.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$49.96	55% 162-133 (295)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	BakS eSportsavg 30.2¢	$309.97	$348.81	+$38.84	59% 42-29 (71)
GA Gaditima	Virtus.proavg 66.4¢	$302.66	$300.96	-$1.71	48% 251-267 (518)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Virtus.proavg 64¢	$75.11	$74.57	-$0.54	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Virtus.proavg 63.9¢	$60.7	$60.33	-$0.38	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
SE sentrio<$100	Virtus.proavg 63.1¢	$53.64	$56.09	+$2.45	43% 933-1261 (2194)
PA Pan9X<$100	Virtus.proavg 65¢	$13	$12.6	-$0.4	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	BakS eSportsavg 33¢	$0.49	$0.52	+$0.03	32% 93-197 (290)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$1,005.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$49.96

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

JuiceFarmCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$309.97

Value

$348.81

PnL

+$38.84

Record

59%

42-29 (71)

Gaditima

Virtus.pro

Invested

$302.66

Value

$300.96

PnL

-$1.71

Record

48%

251-267 (518)

Flaznorp<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$75.11

Value

$74.57

PnL

-$0.54

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

ferdinand2<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$60.7

Value

$60.33

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

sentrio<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$53.64

Value

$56.09

PnL

+$2.45

Record

43%

933-1261 (2194)

Pan9X<$100

Virtus.pro

Invested

$13

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

OddstormCTR<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.03

Record

32%

93-197 (290)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Virtus.pro 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBakS eSports 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Virtus.pro 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.