Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (42%) · Natus Vincere at 100¢ · $180K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Natus Vincere
19
Natus Vincere 42%
$180.2K
$1.4K
58.6¢ → 100¢
+71% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNatus Vincere at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU juice-fruit | Natus Vincereavg 58.1¢ | $97.1K | $94.5K | $-2.6K | 60% 53-36 (89) |
 yabanciCTR | Vitalityavg 42¢ | $44.9K | $46.5K | +$1.6K | 56% 55-43 (98) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Vitalityavg 41.8¢ | $16.6K | $17.3K | +$696.5 | 50% 7294-7425 (14719) |
 RN1 | Natus Vincereavg 51.9¢ | $3.5K | $5.5K | +$2.0K | 54% 56016-48150 (104166) |
 noreasapa | Natus Vincereavg 99.9¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$1.85 | 92% 3565-331 (3896) |
A8 a8999CTR | Vitalityavg 42.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$81.43 | 44% 1082-1377 (2459) |
 SatanishippieCTR | Vitalityavg 43¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$29.07 | 48% 305-328 (633) |
NO nobody2somebodyCTR | Vitalityavg 42¢ | $2.9K | $2.0K | -$910 | 52% 623-583 (1206) |
YI yishiwucheng | Natus Vincereavg 41.6¢ | $505.42 | $1.2K | +$649.34 | 51% 1783-1713 (3496) |
VI vibing123 | Natus Vincereavg 56¢ | $759.85 | $766.63 | +$6.78 | 52% 1553-1433 (2986) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR | Vitalityavg 43¢ | $644.99 | $652.49 | +$7.5 | 33% 6259-12974 (19233) |
 hasobidaleCTR | Vitalityavg 54¢ | $719.53 | $579.48 | -$140.05 | 66% 211-107 (318) |
AS astapzippoCTR | Vitalityavg 42¢ | $485.1 | $502.43 | +$17.32 | 56% 2134-1678 (3812) |
DA dancingmonkey1CTR | Vitalityavg 42¢ | $326.34 | $338 | +$11.66 | 54% 1240-1075 (2315) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Natus Vincereavg 59¢ | $206.5 | $197.75 | -$8.75 | 51% 1350-1294 (2644) |
 JustADonkCTR<$100 | Vitalityavg 42¢ | $93.41 | $96.75 | +$3.34 | 55% 883-722 (1605) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Vitalityavg 43.5¢ | $49.57 | $49.51 | -$0.06 | 49% 18813-19212 (38025) |
 forsenxd<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 51¢ | $32.91 | $36.46 | +$3.55 | 53% 1048-913 (1961) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 58¢ | $23.2 | $23 | -$0.2 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
Invested
$97,108.55
Value
$94.5K
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
60%
53-36 (89)
yabanciCTRInvested
$44,940
Value
$46.5K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
56%
55-43 (98)
Invested
$16,642.6
Value
$17.3K
PnL
+$696.5
Record
50%
7294-7425 (14719)
RN1Invested
$3,485.96
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
54%
56016-48150 (104166)
noreasapaInvested
$3,698.13
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.85
Record
92%
3565-331 (3896)
Invested
$3,576.92
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$81.43
Record
44%
1082-1377 (2459)
SatanishippieCTRInvested
$2,500
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$29.07
Record
48%
305-328 (633)
Invested
$2,940
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$910
Record
52%
623-583 (1206)
Invested
$505.42
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$649.34
Record
51%
1783-1713 (3496)
Invested
$759.85
Value
$766.63
PnL
+$6.78
Record
52%
1553-1433 (2986)
Invested
$644.99
Value
$652.49
PnL
+$7.5
Record
33%
6259-12974 (19233)
hasobidaleCTRInvested
$719.53
Value
$579.48
PnL
-$140.05
Record
66%
211-107 (318)
Invested
$485.1
Value
$502.43
PnL
+$17.32
Record
56%
2134-1678 (3812)
Invested
$326.34
Value
$338
PnL
+$11.66
Record
54%
1240-1075 (2315)
Invested
$206.5
Value
$197.75
PnL
-$8.75
Record
51%
1350-1294 (2644)
JustADonkCTR<$100Invested
$93.41
Value
$96.75
PnL
+$3.34
Record
55%
883-722 (1605)
Invested
$49.57
Value
$49.51
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
18813-19212 (38025)
forsenxd<$100Invested
$32.91
Value
$36.46
PnL
+$3.55
Record
53%
1048-913 (1961)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$23
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
juice-fruit
Natus Vincere — $94.5K
yabanci
CTRVitality — $46.5K
jakepaulthegoat2008
CTRVitality — $17.3K
RN1
Natus Vincere — $5.5K
noreasapa
Natus Vincere — $3.7K
a8999
CTRVitality — $3.7K
Satanishippie
CTRVitality — $2.5K
nobody2somebody
CTRVitality — $2.0K
yishiwucheng
Natus Vincere — $1.2K
vibing123
Natus Vincere — $766.63