Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

20 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (57%) · Natus Vincere at 100¢ · $227K held · ends Oct 29

Vitality<1¢Natus Vincere>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$227.2K

Combined PnL

$16.6K

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 100¢

+54% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

20 of 35 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality0%

Natus Vincere100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere20 traders

Total Value$172.4K

Total Shares196,086

Combined PnL+$14.4K

Vitality15 traders

Total Value$54.6K

Total Shares131,973

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Natus Vincere — 57%Vitality — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Natus Vincereavg 40.4¢	$20.3K	$32.6K	+$12.3K	54% 56016-48150 (104166)
II iii252	Natus Vincereavg 82.8¢	$33.5K	$29.3K	$-4.1K	57% 1112-856 (1968)
3648393489047	Natus Vincereavg 80¢	$20.4K	$24.4K	+$4.0K	61% 1112-703 (1815)
PN pnhct	Natus Vincereavg 58.5¢	$20.6K	$21.2K	+$618.51	54% 474-405 (879)
46 467j6yj	Natus Vincereavg 98.4¢	$20.8K	$20.9K	+$53.81	97% 3248-113 (3361)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Vitalityavg 62.7¢	$20.0K	$19.9K	-$69.13	41% 77-109 (186)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR	Vitalityavg 19.8¢	$14.0K	$16.6K	+$2.6K	41% 284-415 (699)
AA aaaa298	Natus Vincereavg 78.7¢	$29.4K	$10.4K	+$236.3	58% 760-540 (1300)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Natus Vincereavg 37¢	$6.7K	$5.6K	+$1.3K	51% 69-65 (134)
JustADonk	Natus Vincereavg 52.6¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$142.62	55% 883-722 (1605)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Natus Vincereavg 58.8¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$55.92	52% 13642-12471 (26113)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Vitalityavg 59.6¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$206.64	52% 1210-1098 (2308)
cruzNBA	Natus Vincereavg 73.8¢	$3.6K	$4.4K	+$812.33	42% 396-554 (950)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994	Natus Vincereavg 37.6¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$13.18	57% 651-497 (1148)
YI yishiwucheng	Natus Vincereavg 84¢	$4.5K	$3.2K	$-1.3K	51% 1783-1713 (3496)
HO HongweiqianCTR	Vitalityavg 65¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$115.38	48% 223-239 (462)
BI BillBenter2026	Natus Vincereavg 47.8¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$270.74	58% 18484-13569 (32053)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	Vitalityavg 57.3¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$182.23	52% 444-417 (861)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR	Vitalityavg 60.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$68.15	69% 252-113 (365)
A8 a8999CTR	Vitalityavg 61.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$20.92	44% 1082-1377 (2459)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Vitalityavg 64.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$53.87	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
Kangta7373CTR	Vitalityavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10.66	55% 1046-855 (1901)
FA facaigege	Natus Vincereavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$10.55	48% 388-417 (805)
FK fkAL	Natus Vincereavg 23.7¢	$550.85	$871.02	+$320.17	63% 2015-1188 (3203)
RR rrooster	Natus Vincereavg 80¢	$799.99	$669.99	-$130	63% 1324-786 (2110)

RN1

Natus Vincere

Invested

$20,266.77

Value

$32.6K

PnL

+$12.3K

Record

54%

56016-48150 (104166)

iii252

Natus Vincere

Invested

$33,451.53

Value

$29.3K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

57%

1112-856 (1968)

3648393489047

Natus Vincere

Invested

$20,444

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

61%

1112-703 (1815)

pnhct

Natus Vincere

Invested

$20,625.54

Value

$21.2K

PnL

+$618.51

Record

54%

474-405 (879)

467j6yj

Natus Vincere

Invested

$20,817.43

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$53.81

Record

97%

3248-113 (3361)

fantasy7788CTR

Vitality

Invested

$20,000

Value

$19.9K

PnL

-$69.13

Record

41%

77-109 (186)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR

Vitality

Invested

$13,981.73

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

41%

284-415 (699)

aaaa298

Natus Vincere

Invested

$29,444.65

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$236.3

Record

58%

760-540 (1300)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,660

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

69-65 (134)

JustADonk

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,095.97

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$142.62

Record

55%

883-722 (1605)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,555.82

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$55.92

Record

52%

13642-12471 (26113)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Vitality

Invested

$4,236.65

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$206.64

Record

52%

1210-1098 (2308)

cruzNBA

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,580.17

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$812.33

Record

42%

396-554 (950)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,313.29

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$13.18

Record

57%

651-497 (1148)

yishiwucheng

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,499.67

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

1783-1713 (3496)

HongweiqianCTR

Vitality

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$115.38

Record

48%

223-239 (462)

BillBenter2026

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,534.98

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$270.74

Record

58%

18484-13569 (32053)

delacsynzy1CTR

Vitality

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$182.23

Record

52%

444-417 (861)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR

Vitality

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$68.15

Record

69%

252-113 (365)

a8999CTR

Vitality

Invested

$2,088.03

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.92

Record

44%

1082-1377 (2459)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,528.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$53.87

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

Kangta7373CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,343.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10.66

Record

55%

1046-855 (1901)

facaigege

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,245.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.55

Record

48%

388-417 (805)

fkAL

Natus Vincere

Invested

$550.85

Value

$871.02

PnL

+$320.17

Record

63%

2015-1188 (3203)

rrooster

Natus Vincere

Invested

$799.99

Value

$669.99

PnL

-$130

Record

63%

1324-786 (2110)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

20 of 35 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.