Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Vitality, while the market favors MOUZ (100%). 19 of 35 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

19 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (54%) · Vitality at 0.1¢ · $147K held · ends Oct 31

Vitality<1¢MOUZ>99¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$147.0K

Combined PnL

$11.7K

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidVitality at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

19 of 35 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality0%

MOUZ100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality19 traders

Total Value$73.3K

Total Shares132,943

Combined PnL$-3.0K

MOUZ16 traders

Total Value$73.3K

Total Shares97,382

Combined PnL+$14.7K

Vitality — 54%MOUZ — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Vitalityavg 37¢	$27.0K	$24.3K	$-2.7K	54% 56568-48734 (105302)
PN pnhct	MOUZavg 67.3¢	$24.6K	$23.0K	$-1.6K	54% 511-444 (955)
3648393489047	MOUZavg 48.1¢	$12.9K	$19.8K	+$6.8K	61% 1125-710 (1835)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Vitalityavg 54¢	$13.5K	$13.9K	+$375	50% 1232-1226 (2458)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Vitalityavg 55¢	$7.2K	$9.0K	+$1.8K	58% 1862-1341 (3203)
II iii252	MOUZavg 58.9¢	$11.7K	$7.2K	+$5.5K	57% 1136-870 (2006)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Vitalityavg 53¢	$4.5K	$5.8K	+$1.3K	53% 755-669 (1424)
MU muneyenjayerrrCTR	Vitalityavg 47.7¢	$4.8K	$5.3K	+$483.7	58% 268-195 (463)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	MOUZavg 66.5¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$143	43% 338-452 (790)
AA aaaa298	MOUZavg 54.9¢	$8.4K	$4.1K	+$6.2K	59% 784-551 (1335)
TR TrippleEXCTR	Vitalityavg 51.3¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$70.71	58% 296-215 (511)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	Vitalityavg 53.5¢	$5.9K	$2.9K	$-3.0K	57% 663-508 (1171)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 64¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$154.72	52% 13779-12577 (26356)
HO Hongweiqian	MOUZavg 57.7¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$57.17	49% 237-251 (488)
UN Unknownpoluy	MOUZavg 43.9¢	$3.4K	$2.5K	-$965.3	43% 102-134 (236)
FK fkALCTR	Vitalityavg 54¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$435	63% 2037-1202 (3239)
FA facaigege	MOUZavg 47¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20	49% 404-426 (830)
SatanishippieCTR	Vitalityavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$368.18	49% 320-339 (659)
DumplingBMF	MOUZavg 46¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$724.99	68% 1817-845 (2662)
JohnLKellyJr	MOUZavg 68¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$83.04	52% 1243-1129 (2372)
ReformedxCTR	Vitalityavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$13.88	52% 823-773 (1596)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Vitalityavg 46.8¢	$3.4K	$1.3K	$-2.1K	49% 19146-19539 (38685)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Vitalityavg 54¢	$776.3	$984.75	+$208.45	62% 1148-697 (1845)
0X 0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f	MOUZavg 84.4¢	$1.1K	$983.71	-$86.66	73% 242-88 (330)
MA manoamanoCTR	Vitalityavg 54¢	$342.44	$434.39	+$91.95	51% 476-458 (934)

RN1CTR

Vitality

Invested

$26,965.71

Value

$24.3K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

54%

56568-48734 (105302)

pnhct

MOUZ

Invested

$24,589.46

Value

$23.0K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

511-444 (955)

3648393489047

MOUZ

Invested

$12,936.65

Value

$19.8K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

61%

1125-710 (1835)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Vitality

Invested

$13,500

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$375

Record

50%

1232-1226 (2458)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Vitality

Invested

$7,232.5

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

58%

1862-1341 (3203)

iii252

MOUZ

Invested

$11,709.69

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

57%

1136-870 (2006)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Vitality

Invested

$4,468.74

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

755-669 (1424)

muneyenjayerrrCTR

Vitality

Invested

$4,800

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$483.7

Record

58%

268-195 (463)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

MOUZ

Invested

$4,773.6

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$143

Record

43%

338-452 (790)

aaaa298

MOUZ

Invested

$8,424.7

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

59%

784-551 (1335)

TrippleEXCTR

Vitality

Invested

$3,047.83

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$70.71

Record

58%

296-215 (511)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

Vitality

Invested

$5,881.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

57%

663-508 (1171)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$3,013.36

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$154.72

Record

52%

13779-12577 (26356)

Hongweiqian

MOUZ

Invested

$2,800

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$57.17

Record

49%

237-251 (488)

Unknownpoluy

MOUZ

Invested

$3,419.47

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$965.3

Record

43%

102-134 (236)

fkALCTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,620

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$435

Record

63%

2037-1202 (3239)

facaigege

MOUZ

Invested

$1,879.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$20

Record

49%

404-426 (830)

SatanishippieCTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$368.18

Record

49%

320-339 (659)

DumplingBMF

MOUZ

Invested

$2,299.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$724.99

Record

68%

1817-845 (2662)

JohnLKellyJr

MOUZ

Invested

$1,613.36

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$83.04

Record

52%

1243-1129 (2372)

ReformedxCTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,499.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$13.88

Record

52%

823-773 (1596)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Vitality

Invested

$3,403.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

49%

19146-19539 (38685)

lonmi2511CTR

Vitality

Invested

$776.3

Value

$984.75

PnL

+$208.45

Record

62%

1148-697 (1845)

0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f

MOUZ

Invested

$1,100

Value

$983.71

PnL

-$86.66

Record

73%

242-88 (330)

manoamanoCTR

Vitality

Invested

$342.44

Value

$434.39

PnL

+$91.95

Record

51%

476-458 (934)

Research grade

AvoidVitality at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

19 of 35 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.