Counter-Strike: tao toma vs BARCA - Map 2 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold BARCA (55%) · BARCA at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

tao toma<1¢BARCA>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BARCA

Consensus Traders

BARCA 55%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$446.67

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 99.5¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

tao toma1%

BARCA100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BARCA6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,961

Combined PnL-$67.94

tao toma5 traders

Total Value$734.74

Total Shares3,152

Combined PnL-$378.73

BARCA — 55%tao toma — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	BARCAavg 67.7¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$155.75	31% 30-66 (96)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	BARCAavg 72.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$80.12	61% 164-106 (270)
CR crabfavorCTR	tao tomaavg 33.8¢	$585.24	$395.41	-$189.84	58% 97-71 (168)
NO NotJumpCTR	tao tomaavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	52% 828-769 (1597)
31 319113331313111CTR	tao tomaavg 16.4¢	$2.9K	$45.56	-$89.9	57% 181-138 (319)
LR lryyy<$100	BARCAavg 64¢	$29.04	$43.01	+$13.97	45% 810-993 (1803)
poshposh<$100	BARCAavg 63.2¢	$47.76	$41.18	-$6.58	48% 1130-1207 (2337)
38 38791873984189<$100	BARCAavg 58¢	$30.74	$31.54	+$0.79	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	tao tomaavg 20.6¢	$129.6	$28.3	-$101.3	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
SH shiifoo<$100	BARCAavg 60¢	$14.75	$14.26	-$0.49	61% 1427-909 (2336)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	tao tomaavg 1¢	$0.66	$2.97	+$2.31	3% 8-287 (295)

JabJabich

BARCA

Invested

$1,693.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$155.75

Record

31%

30-66 (96)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

BARCA

Invested

$1,184.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$80.12

Record

61%

164-106 (270)

crabfavorCTR

tao toma

Invested

$585.24

Value

$395.41

PnL

-$189.84

Record

58%

97-71 (168)

NotJumpCTR

tao toma

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

319113331313111CTR

tao toma

Invested

$2,862.56

Value

$45.56

PnL

-$89.9

Record

57%

181-138 (319)

lryyy<$100

BARCA

Invested

$29.04

Value

$43.01

PnL

+$13.97

Record

45%

810-993 (1803)

poshposh<$100

BARCA

Invested

$47.76

Value

$41.18

PnL

-$6.58

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

38791873984189<$100

BARCA

Invested

$30.74

Value

$31.54

PnL

+$0.79

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

topdogbigboiCTR

tao toma

Invested

$129.6

Value

$28.3

PnL

-$101.3

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

shiifoo<$100

BARCA

Invested

$14.75

Value

$14.26

PnL

-$0.49

Record

61%

1427-909 (2336)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

tao toma

Invested

$0.66

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$2.31

Record

8-287 (295)

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BARCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.