Counter-Strike: tao toma vs BARCA (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BARCA (40%) · BARCA at 66¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 14

tao toma35¢BARCA65¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BARCA

Consensus Traders

BARCA 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.8K

Combined PnL

$72.38

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 65.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

tao toma35%

BARCA66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BARCA4 traders

Total Value$29.2K

Total Shares44,615

Combined PnL-$110.24

tao toma6 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares41,999

Combined PnL+$182.62

BARCA — 40%tao toma — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on BARCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrtao toma 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000BARCA 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BARCAavg 65.8¢	$28.2K	$28.1K	-$109.89	56% 166-133 (299)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	tao tomaavg 34¢	$10.2K	$10.3K	+$150	56% 390-306 (696)
BA BabooouCTR	tao tomaavg 34¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$33.33	67% 16-8 (24)
SE sentrioCTR	tao tomaavg 34¢	$667.51	$677.33	+$9.82	42% 991-1360 (2351)
fyrsken	BARCAavg 66¢	$594	$589.5	-$4.5	52% 55-51 (106)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	BARCAavg 65¢	$520	$524	+$4	25% 340-1018 (1358)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	tao tomaavg 35¢	$525	$517.5	-$7.5	58% 43-31 (74)
MA manoamanoCTR	tao tomaavg 35.1¢	$387.52	$380.66	-$6.86	55% 29-24 (53)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	tao tomaavg 34¢	$260.67	$264.5	+$3.83	44% 18-23 (41)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	tao tomaavg 37.8¢	$73.97	$80.78	+$6.81	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
└ tao toma leg	tao tomaavg 37.8¢	$57.37	$54.7	-$2.67
└ BARCA leg	BARCAavg 42¢	$16.6	$26.08	+$9.48
PA Pan9X<$100	BARCAavg 64¢	$15.73	$15.89	+$0.16	50% 1586-1610 (3196)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BARCA

Invested

$28,206.07

Value

$28.1K

PnL

-$109.89

Record

56%

166-133 (299)

WiretransferxyzCTR

tao toma

Invested

$10,199.87

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$150

Record

56%

390-306 (696)

BabooouCTR

tao toma

Invested

$2,266.44

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$33.33

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

sentrioCTR

tao toma

Invested

$667.51

Value

$677.33

PnL

+$9.82

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

fyrsken

BARCA

Invested

$594

Value

$589.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

52%

55-51 (106)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

BARCA

Invested

$520

Value

$524

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

340-1018 (1358)

JuiceFarmCTR

tao toma

Invested

$525

Value

$517.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

58%

43-31 (74)

manoamanoCTR

tao toma

Invested

$387.52

Value

$380.66

PnL

-$6.86

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

iWasEnoughCTR

tao toma

Invested

$260.67

Value

$264.5

PnL

+$3.83

Record

44%

18-23 (41)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

tao toma

Invested

$73.97

Value

$80.78

PnL

+$6.81

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

Both legs:

tao toma$57.3737.8¢-$2.67

BARCA$16.642¢+$9.48

Pan9X<$100

BARCA

Invested

$15.73

Value

$15.89

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

1586-1610 (3196)

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on BARCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrtao toma 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000BARCA 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BARCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.