Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (50%) · Spirit at 70¢ · $92K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
8
Spirit 50%
$91.5K
$834.85
69.2¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | Spiritavg 69¢ | $64.2K | $65.6K | +$1.4K | 55% 286-235 (521) |
 KateBollingerCTR | Natus Vincereavg 31¢ | $7.8K | $7.4K | -$375 | 69% 1726-786 (2512) |
TR TrippleEX | Spiritavg 71¢ | $7.1K | $6.9K | -$200 | 57% 284-210 (494) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Natus Vincereavg 30¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$66.09 | 50% 7252-7398 (14650) |
VI vibing123CTR | Natus Vincereavg 29¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$52.21 | 52% 1541-1426 (2967) |
BA BabooouCTR | Natus Vincereavg 31¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$120 | 52% 203-187 (390) |
 pup1 | Spiritavg 70¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$10 | 46% 1970-2319 (4289) |
 hasobidale | Spiritavg 70¢ | $700 | $705 | +$5 | 67% 208-103 (311) |
Invested
$64,241.42
Value
$65.6K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
55%
286-235 (521)
KateBollingerCTRInvested
$7,750
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$375
Record
69%
1726-786 (2512)
Invested
$7,100
Value
$6.9K
PnL
-$200
Record
57%
284-210 (494)
Invested
$3,965.31
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$66.09
Record
50%
7252-7398 (14650)
Invested
$3,027.92
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$52.21
Record
52%
1541-1426 (2967)
Invested
$2,480
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$120
Record
52%
203-187 (390)
pup1Invested
$1,400
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$10
Record
46%
1970-2319 (4289)
hasobidaleInvested
$700
Value
$705
PnL
+$5
Record
67%
208-103 (311)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.