Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (33%) · Spirit at 55¢ · $59K held · ends Nov 14

Spirit55¢MOUZ45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$58.7K

Combined PnL

$834.52

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

5 of 15 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit55%

MOUZ46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit5 traders

Total Value$39.7K

Total Shares72,786

Combined PnL+$946.74

MOUZ10 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares38,356

Combined PnL-$112.22

Spirit — 33%MOUZ — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMOUZ 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
drainedandpoor	Spiritavg 52.6¢	$20.7K	$21.4K	+$745.99	47% 426-474 (900)
Valen9	Spiritavg 54¢	$10.8K	$10.9K	+$100	4% 1-27 (28)
SU SuperMegaManCTR	MOUZavg 46¢	$10.6K	$10.5K	-$115	49% 623-640 (1263)
RR rrooster	Spiritavg 54¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$43.06	49% 47-49 (96)
WE weeeskiesCTR	MOUZavg 46.5¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$0.8	44% 11-14 (25)
LL lllllllIlll	Spiritavg 53¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$61.56	2% 5-206 (211)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	MOUZavg 45¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$16.83	42% 15-21 (36)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	MOUZavg 46¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$15.97	58% 82-60 (142)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Spiritavg 53.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$2.07	56% 4051-3158 (7209)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 53.3¢	$587.18	$600.76	+$13.58
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 46.9¢	$542.85	$527.2	-$15.65
PA papaebalCTR	MOUZavg 45¢	$800.19	$809.08	+$8.89	5% 5-104 (109)
PO PourpelNourpel	Spiritavg 53¢	$410	$406.13	-$3.87	55% 68-55 (123)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	MOUZavg 48.3¢	$645	$374.12	-$1.93	52% 793-723 (1516)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 48.3¢	$245.24	$231.05	-$19.83
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 50.1¢	$131.4	$143.06	+$17.9
TO topdogbigboiCTR	MOUZavg 47.7¢	$259.99	$253.27	-$6.72	38% 981-1634 (2615)
38 38791873984189CTR	MOUZavg 48.5¢	$142.23	$140.64	-$1.59	48% 3155-3450 (6605)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	MOUZavg 48.6¢	$66.74	$65.6	-$1.14	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 48.6¢	$39.94	$39.05	-$0.89
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 53¢	$26.81	$26.55	-$0.25
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	MOUZavg 49¢	$5	$4.9	-$0.1	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
JO jole24CTR<$100	MOUZavg 48¢	$2.53	$2.53	+$0	45% 23-28 (51)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	MOUZavg 46¢	$10.22	$1.8	+$0.65	53% 1298-1131 (2429)

drainedandpoor

Spirit

Invested

$20,670.98

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$745.99

Record

47%

426-474 (900)

Valen9

Spirit

Invested

$10,799.98

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

1-27 (28)

SuperMegaManCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$10,580

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$115

Record

49%

623-640 (1263)

rrooster

Spirit

Invested

$4,650.4

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$43.06

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

weeeskiesCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$2,863.6

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$0.8

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

lllllllIlll

Spirit

Invested

$2,175.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$61.56

Record

5-206 (211)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,514.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$16.83

Record

42%

15-21 (36)

yishiwuchengCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,469.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.97

Record

58%

82-60 (142)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$1,130.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$2.07

Record

56%

4051-3158 (7209)

Both legs:

Spirit$587.1853.3¢+$13.58

MOUZ$542.8546.9¢-$15.65

papaebalCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$800.19

Value

$809.08

PnL

+$8.89

Record

5-104 (109)

PourpelNourpel

Spirit

Invested

$410

Value

$406.13

PnL

-$3.87

Record

55%

68-55 (123)

NotJumpARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$645

Value

$374.12

PnL

-$1.93

Record

52%

793-723 (1516)

Both legs:

MOUZ$245.2448.3¢-$19.83

Spirit$131.450.1¢+$17.9

topdogbigboiCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$259.99

Value

$253.27

PnL

-$6.72

Record

38%

981-1634 (2615)

38791873984189CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$142.23

Value

$140.64

PnL

-$1.59

Record

48%

3155-3450 (6605)

ghorrockARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$66.74

Value

$65.6

PnL

-$1.14

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

Both legs:

MOUZ$39.9448.6¢-$0.89

Spirit$26.8153¢-$0.25

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

MOUZ

Invested

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

jole24CTR<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

23-28 (51)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$10.22

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.65

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

5 of 15 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMOUZ 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.