Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 31¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Over69¢Under31¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 31¢

-44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,593

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over3 traders

Total Value$263.02

Total Shares384

Combined PnL+$79.95

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 56¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$917.91	52% 746-692 (1438)
BI biying99999CTR	Underavg 56¢	$432.32	$231.6	-$200.72	30% 71-162 (233)
YI yishiwucheng	Overavg 66.4¢	$324.05	$170.02	+$20.1	56% 47-37 (84)
SU suntori	Overavg 53.6¢	$167.21	$62.23	+$47.61	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
forsenxdCTR<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$61.7	$34.96	-$26.74	48% 359-383 (742)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$46	$31.5	-$14.5	54% 421-356 (777)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Overavg 41.3¢	$18.54	$30.78	+$12.24	60% 667-444 (1111)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$33.94	$19.09	-$14.85	2% 7-291 (298)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$6.34	$4.65	-$1.7	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.26	$1.28	-$0.98	40% 3243-4890 (8133)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,977.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$917.91

Record

52%

746-692 (1438)

biying99999CTR

Under

Invested

$432.32

Value

$231.6

PnL

-$200.72

Record

30%

71-162 (233)

yishiwucheng

Over

Invested

$324.05

Value

$170.02

PnL

+$20.1

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

suntori

Over

Invested

$167.21

Value

$62.23

PnL

+$47.61

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

forsenxdCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.7

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$26.74

Record

48%

359-383 (742)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$14.5

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

lonmi2511<$100

Over

Invested

$18.54

Value

$30.78

PnL

+$12.24

Record

60%

667-444 (1111)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.94

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$14.85

Record

7-291 (298)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.34

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$1.7

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.26

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.98

Record

40%

3243-4890 (8133)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.