Games Total: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$84.92
59.3¢ → 62.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FARB<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$1.69 | 54% 127-109 (236) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$84.65 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40.8¢ | $916.12 | $829.78 | -$86.34 | |
BI biying88888 | Underavg 59¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$79.47 | 27% 63-170 (233) |
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 61¢ | $259.99 | $264.26 | +$4.26 | 60% 636-423 (1059) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $40.28 | $40.6 | +$0.32 | 10% 89-787 (876) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Underavg 55.7¢ | $7.54 | $8.4 | +$0.86 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$3,455.48
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$1.69
Record
54%
127-109 (236)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,562.91
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$79.47
Record
27%
63-170 (233)
Invested
$259.99
Value
$264.26
PnL
+$4.26
Record
60%
636-423 (1059)
Invested
$40.28
Value
$40.6
PnL
+$0.32
Record
10%
89-787 (876)
Invested
$7.54
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0.86
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.