Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit, while the market favors FUT Esports (54%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (44%) · Spirit at 47¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 11

Spirit47¢FUT Esports53¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 44%

Total Value

$37.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 46.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors FUT Esports 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit47%

FUT Esports54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit4 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares43,934

Combined PnL-$441.29

FUT Esports5 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares30,955

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Spirit — 44%FUT Esports — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Spiritavg 49.7¢	$14.0K	$13.2K	-$891.26	54% 331-279 (610)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	FUT Esportsavg 59¢	$8.8K	$8.0K	-$825	50% 1367-1340 (2707)
VI vibing123	FUT Esportsavg 59¢	$5.4K	$4.9K	-$503.07	52% 1735-1631 (3366)
JA JabJabichCTR	Spiritavg 41.6¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$470.06	61% 240-152 (392)
Stickman22	FUT Esportsavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$17.88	52% 1885-1766 (3651)
relativesignificanceCTR	Spiritavg 40.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$170.61	57% 154-118 (272)
RA RayayaCTR	Spiritavg 52.8¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$190.7	61% 1249-807 (2056)
LooksMaxxingx	FUT Esportsavg 53.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.93	51% 908-871 (1779)
IW iWasEnough	FUT Esportsavg 59¢	$441.74	$400.57	-$41.18	51% 12900-12426 (25326)

lllllllIlllCTR

Spirit

Invested

$14,044.58

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$891.26

Record

54%

331-279 (610)

Gooooooollllllllll

FUT Esports

Invested

$8,850

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$825

Record

50%

1367-1340 (2707)

vibing123

FUT Esports

Invested

$5,396.92

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$503.07

Record

52%

1735-1631 (3366)

JabJabichCTR

Spirit

Invested

$4,002.57

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$470.06

Record

61%

240-152 (392)

Stickman22

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,877

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$17.88

Record

52%

1885-1766 (3651)

relativesignificanceCTR

Spirit

Invested

$1,237.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$170.61

Record

57%

154-118 (272)

RayayaCTR

Spirit

Invested

$1,585.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$190.7

Record

61%

1249-807 (2056)

LooksMaxxingx

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,374.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.93

Record

51%

908-871 (1779)

iWasEnough

FUT Esports

Invested

$441.74

Value

$400.57

PnL

-$41.18

Record

51%

12900-12426 (25326)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors FUT Esports 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.