Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (50%) · Spirit at 69¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
4
Spirit 50%
$15.1K
-$149.7
69.4¢ → 69¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Neimuking | Spiritavg 69.4¢ | $12.1K | $12.0K | -$74.11 | — 1-13 (14) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | FUT Esportsavg 30.8¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$79.63 | 53% 124-109 (233) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | FUT Esportsavg 28.8¢ | $55.14 | $25.29 | +$3.56 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Spiritavg 63¢ | $5 | $5.47 | +$0.48 | 41% 3064-4447 (7511) |
NeimukingInvested
$12,087.47
Value
$12.0K
PnL
-$74.11
Record
—
1-13 (14)
Invested
$3,151.13
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$79.63
Record
53%
124-109 (233)
Invested
$55.14
Value
$25.29
PnL
+$3.56
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.48
Record
41%
3064-4447 (7511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.