Games Total: O/U 4.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over38¢Under62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$79.51

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 62.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,072

Combined PnL-$81.41

Over5 traders

Total Value$253.33

Total Shares671

Combined PnL+$1.9

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 64¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$16.12	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
BI biying99999	Underavg 64¢	$475.7	$468.27	-$7.43	40% 150-224 (374)
SU suntori	Underavg 67.6¢	$478.08	$420.67	-$57.41	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 32¢	$92.51	$104.07	+$11.56	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Overavg 43.9¢	$76.8	$65.63	-$11.17	48% 534-577 (1111)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 38.4¢	$37.82	$42.83	+$5.01	50% 1088-1092 (2180)
YI yishiwuchengCTR<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$54.02	$32.34	-$1.96	59% 103-73 (176)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$10	$8.46	-$1.54	42% 549-751 (1300)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Underavg 59¢	$5.9	$5.45	-$0.45	38% 323-526 (849)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,031.73

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$16.12

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

biying99999

Under

Invested

$475.7

Value

$468.27

PnL

-$7.43

Record

40%

150-224 (374)

suntori

Under

Invested

$478.08

Value

$420.67

PnL

-$57.41

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$92.51

Value

$104.07

PnL

+$11.56

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.8

Value

$65.63

PnL

-$11.17

Record

48%

534-577 (1111)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.82

Value

$42.83

PnL

+$5.01

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

yishiwuchengCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.02

Value

$32.34

PnL

-$1.96

Record

59%

103-73 (176)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$1.54

Record

42%

549-751 (1300)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

323-526 (849)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.