Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (50%) · FURIA at 75¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Spirit25¢FURIA75¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 50%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$650.11

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 75¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spirit25%

FURIA75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA5 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares8,165

Combined PnL-$591.42

Spirit5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares8,681

Combined PnL-$58.68

FURIA — 50%Spirit — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpirit 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000FURIA 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rafaleaoo	FURIAavg 79¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$306.66	5% 38-657 (695)
YI yishiwucheng	FURIAavg 80.4¢	$3.4K	$2.0K	-$205.19	59% 103-73 (176)
WE weeeskiesCTR	Spiritavg 19¢	$570	$840	+$270	38% 15-24 (39)
SU suntori	FURIAavg 82.1¢	$666.66	$609.15	-$57.51	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
PA Partyarty91CTR	Spiritavg 20.5¢	$1,000	$585.05	-$414.95	4% 3-79 (82)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Spiritavg 17.1¢	$96.27	$157.48	+$61.22	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
OM omnibus-076daa	FURIAavg 81¢	$108.54	$96.48	-$12.06	46% 607-722 (1329)
XT xtxpleasecallme	FURIAavg 80¢	$100	$90	-$10	38% 3787-6190 (9977)
forsenxdCTR<$100	Spiritavg 18¢	$29.5	$45.89	+$16.39	49% 380-403 (783)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Spiritavg 21¢	$21	$22.17	+$8.66	50% 1088-1092 (2180)

rafaleaoo

FURIA

Invested

$3,460.88

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$306.66

Record

38-657 (695)

yishiwucheng

FURIA

Invested

$3,369.82

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$205.19

Record

59%

103-73 (176)

weeeskiesCTR

Spirit

Invested

$570

Value

$840

PnL

+$270

Record

38%

15-24 (39)

suntori

FURIA

Invested

$666.66

Value

$609.15

PnL

-$57.51

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

Partyarty91CTR

Spirit

Invested

$1,000

Value

$585.05

PnL

-$414.95

Record

3-79 (82)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Spirit

Invested

$96.27

Value

$157.48

PnL

+$61.22

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

omnibus-076daa

FURIA

Invested

$108.54

Value

$96.48

PnL

-$12.06

Record

46%

607-722 (1329)

xtxpleasecallme

FURIA

Invested

$100

Value

$90

PnL

-$10

Record

38%

3787-6190 (9977)

forsenxdCTR<$100

Spirit

Invested

$29.5

Value

$45.89

PnL

+$16.39

Record

49%

380-403 (783)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Spirit

Invested

$21

Value

$22.17

PnL

+$8.66

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpirit 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000FURIA 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.