Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (50%) · FURIA at 59¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 15

Spirit42¢FURIA58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 50%

Total Value

$28.3K

Combined PnL

-$261.72

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 58.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit42%

FURIA59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA6 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares25,469

Combined PnL-$288.57

Spirit6 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares32,773

Combined PnL+$26.85

FURIA — 50%Spirit — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpirit 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spirit 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	FURIAavg 60¢	$7.2K	$6.8K	-$360	62% 1161-712 (1873)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Spiritavg 40¢	$5.3K	$5.5K	+$263.77	55% 174-142 (316)
PA Partyarty91CTR	Spiritavg 43.6¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$243.29	4% 3-79 (82)
rafaleaoo	FURIAavg 58¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$50	5% 31-654 (685)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258	FURIAavg 56¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$87.41	— 10-8 (18)
HO HongweiqianCTR	Spiritavg 42¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	54% 245-210 (455)
VeryLucky888	FURIAavg 56.7¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	+$40	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	FURIAavg 58¢	$464	$464	+$0	28% 414-1082 (1496)
SU suntoriCTR	Spiritavg 42¢	$379.04	$379.4	+$0.36	46% 2978-3516 (6494)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Spiritavg 42¢	$289.38	$289.38	+$0	61% 105-66 (171)
fyrskenCTR	Spiritavg 41¢	$246	$252	+$6	49% 60-63 (123)
Stickman22	FURIAavg 59¢	$176.27	$170.3	-$5.98	46% 13-15 (28)

vibing123

FURIA

Invested

$7,199.98

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$360

Record

62%

1161-712 (1873)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Spirit

Invested

$5,275.44

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$263.77

Record

55%

174-142 (316)

Partyarty91CTR

Spirit

Invested

$4,990.65

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$243.29

Record

3-79 (82)

rafaleaoo

FURIA

Invested

$2,899.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$50

Record

31-654 (685)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258

FURIA

Invested

$2,447.45

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$87.41

Record

—

10-8 (18)

HongweiqianCTR

Spirit

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

245-210 (455)

VeryLucky888

FURIA

Invested

$1,901.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$40

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

FURIA

Invested

$464

Value

$464

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

414-1082 (1496)

suntoriCTR

Spirit

Invested

$379.04

Value

$379.4

PnL

+$0.36

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

Zzzz87CTR

Spirit

Invested

$289.38

Value

$289.38

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

105-66 (171)

fyrskenCTR

Spirit

Invested

$246

Value

$252

PnL

+$6

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

Stickman22

FURIA

Invested

$176.27

Value

$170.3

PnL

-$5.98

Record

46%

13-15 (28)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpirit 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spirit 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.