Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (56%) · Spirit at 57¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 15

Spirit57¢FURIA43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.4K

Combined PnL

$182

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit57%

FURIA43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit5 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares35,160

Combined PnL+$189.69

FURIA4 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares18,903

Combined PnL-$7.69

Spirit — 56%FURIA — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
shekelmeister	Spiritavg 57¢	$17.9K	$18.1K	+$157.05	47% 427-475 (902)
VI vibing123CTR	FURIAavg 43¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$0	62% 1138-702 (1840)
RA RayayaCTR	FURIAavg 43¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$0	57% 16-12 (28)
itwasawholething	Spiritavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$30.53	40% 8-12 (20)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	FURIAavg 44¢	$353.56	$345.53	-$8.04	34% 28-54 (82)
OM omnibus-076daa	Spiritavg 57¢	$220.07	$222	+$1.93	46% 499-596 (1095)
WE westing.v1	Spiritavg 57¢	$157.71	$157.71	+$0	23% 29-98 (127)
SU suntoriARB<$100	FURIAavg 44¢	$69.36	$68.32	-$1.04	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 44¢	$45.56	$44.52	-$1.04
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 57¢	$23.8	$23.8	+$0
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	FURIAavg 42.6¢	$42.35	$42.7	+$0.35	36% 477-850 (1327)
nigiri99<$100	Spiritavg 57¢	$19.38	$19.55	+$0.17	51% 568-535 (1103)

shekelmeister

Spirit

Invested

$17,903.85

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$157.05

Record

47%

427-475 (902)

vibing123CTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,160

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

RayayaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,579.96

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

itwasawholething

Spirit

Invested

$1,709.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$30.53

Record

40%

8-12 (20)

MrConsistencyCTR

FURIA

Invested

$353.56

Value

$345.53

PnL

-$8.04

Record

34%

28-54 (82)

omnibus-076daa

Spirit

Invested

$220.07

Value

$222

PnL

+$1.93

Record

46%

499-596 (1095)

westing.v1

Spirit

Invested

$157.71

Value

$157.71

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

29-98 (127)

suntoriARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$69.36

Value

$68.32

PnL

-$1.04

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Both legs:

Invested

$42.35

Value

$42.7

PnL

+$0.35

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

nigiri99<$100

Spirit

Invested

$19.38

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.