Counter-Strike: Tulpar vs DNK (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Tulpar (50%) · Tulpar at 72¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Tulpar72¢DNK28¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tulpar

Consensus Traders

Tulpar 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$731.27

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 71.5¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTulpar at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tulpar

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tulpar72%

DNK28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tulpar2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,470

Combined PnL+$726.17

DNK2 traders

Total Value$40.87

Total Shares99

Combined PnL+$5.1

Tulpar — 50%DNK — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540ARB<$100	Tulparavg 80¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$150.43	54% 80-69 (149)
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 33.9¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$345.25
└ Tulpar leg	Tulparavg 80¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$495.69
JA JabJabich	Tulparavg 60.2¢	$3.5K	$1.4K	+$722.29	0% 0-35 (35)
SH shiifooARB<$100	Tulparavg 68.2¢	$459.97	$423.76	-$36.21	62% 1321-795 (2116)
└ Tulpar leg	Tulparavg 68.2¢	$263.49	$258.76	-$4.73
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 39.3¢	$196.48	$165	-$31.48
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Tulparavg 70.5¢	$278.41	$282.28	+$3.88	14% 140-834 (974)
LI LiquidifierCTR<$100	DNKavg 35.5¢	$14.2	$21.4	+$7.2	10% 9-85 (94)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	DNKavg 36.6¢	$21.57	$19.47	-$2.1	48% 659-706 (1365)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540ARB<$100

Tulpar

Invested

$3,132.7

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$150.43

Record

54%

80-69 (149)

Both legs:

DNK$1,369.1433.9¢+$345.25

Tulpar$1,763.5680¢-$495.69

JabJabich

Tulpar

Invested

$3,521.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$722.29

Record

0-35 (35)

shiifooARB<$100

Tulpar

Invested

$459.97

Value

$423.76

PnL

-$36.21

Record

62%

1321-795 (2116)

Both legs:

Tulpar$263.4968.2¢-$4.73

DNK$196.4839.3¢-$31.48

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Tulpar

Invested

$278.41

Value

$282.28

PnL

+$3.88

Record

14%

140-834 (974)

LiquidifierCTR<$100

DNK

Invested

$14.2

Value

$21.4

PnL

+$7.2

Record

10%

9-85 (94)

Pan9XCTR<$100

DNK

Invested

$21.57

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$2.1

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

Research grade

NeutralTulpar at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tulpar

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tulpar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.