Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TYLOO (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Liquid (44%) · Liquid at 68¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 4

Liquid68¢TYLOO32¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liquid

Consensus Traders

Liquid 44%

Total Value

$23.8K

Combined PnL

-$415.21

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 67.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiquid at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Liquid68%

TYLOO33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TYLOO9 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares32,666

Combined PnL-$34.42

Liquid7 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares19,731

Combined PnL-$380.79

TYLOO — 56%Liquid — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTYLOO 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrTYLOO 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000TYLOO 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tankfest2027CTR	TYLOOavg 31.6¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	-$17.57	49% 139-147 (286)
Satanishippie	Liquidavg 70.1¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$136.48	48% 328-360 (688)
relativesignificance	Liquidavg 70.3¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$131.62	56% 134-104 (238)
CORGIICTR	TYLOOavg 32.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$10.17	40% 402-592 (994)
RA Rayaya	Liquidavg 71¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$91.19	60% 1201-787 (1988)
itwasawholethingCTR	TYLOOavg 32¢	$945.6	$916.05	-$29.55	60% 65-43 (108)
hasobidale	Liquidavg 68¢	$816	$810	-$6	64% 236-131 (367)
AS astapzippo	Liquidavg 68.6¢	$523.81	$515.69	-$8.12	56% 2189-1727 (3916)
OJ ojgtubvdt	Liquidavg 69.1¢	$304.8	$297.79	-$7.01	62% 656-400 (1056)
DR dribblingbanana69CTR	TYLOOavg 31¢	$123.9	$125.9	+$2	49% 310-328 (638)
GH ghorrock<$100	Liquidavg 68.3¢	$65.29	$17.26	-$0.37	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 30¢	$4.71	$4.86	+$0.15	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 29¢	$3.27	$3.49	+$0.23	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
HRTradingCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 30¢	$2.4	$2.48	+$0.08	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 29¢	$2.07	$2.21	+$0.14	48% 6897-7543 (14440)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 32.1¢	$1.97	$1.9	-$0.07	45% 13648-16581 (30229)

tankfest2027CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$6,969.32

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$17.57

Record

49%

139-147 (286)

Satanishippie

Liquid

Invested

$6,093

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$136.48

Record

48%

328-360 (688)

relativesignificance

Liquid

Invested

$3,942.85

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$131.62

Record

56%

134-104 (238)

CORGIICTR

TYLOO

Invested

$2,327.97

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$10.17

Record

40%

402-592 (994)

Rayaya

Liquid

Invested

$2,131.19

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$91.19

Record

60%

1201-787 (1988)

itwasawholethingCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$945.6

Value

$916.05

PnL

-$29.55

Record

60%

65-43 (108)

hasobidale

Liquid

Invested

$816

Value

$810

PnL

-$6

Record

64%

236-131 (367)

astapzippo

Liquid

Invested

$523.81

Value

$515.69

PnL

-$8.12

Record

56%

2189-1727 (3916)

ojgtubvdt

Liquid

Invested

$304.8

Value

$297.79

PnL

-$7.01

Record

62%

656-400 (1056)

dribblingbanana69CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$123.9

Value

$125.9

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

310-328 (638)

ghorrock<$100

Liquid

Invested

$65.29

Value

$17.26

PnL

-$0.37

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.49

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

HRTradingCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

GaditimaCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.14

Record

48%

6897-7543 (14440)

suntoriCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

Research grade

NeutralLiquid at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTYLOO 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrTYLOO 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000TYLOO 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.