Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner

10 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (43%) · FURIA at 100¢ · $103K held · ends Oct 28

Liquid<1¢FURIA>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$103.2K

Combined PnL

$10.4K

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

10 of 23 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liquid0%

FURIA100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA10 traders

Total Value$77.1K

Total Shares82,888

Combined PnL+$7.3K

Liquid13 traders

Total Value$25.1K

Total Shares67,807

Combined PnL+$3.1K

FURIA — 43%Liquid — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	FURIAavg 76.9¢	$30.9K	$29.7K	$-1.2K	54% 451-390 (841)
RN1	FURIAavg 70.8¢	$23.3K	$25.0K	+$1.6K	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
13 1337zzz1337	FURIAavg 69.8¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$47.43	52% 207-193 (400)
cruzNBACTR	Liquidavg 29.5¢	$5.0K	$8.0K	+$3.0K	42% 392-545 (937)
AA aaaa298	FURIAavg 79.3¢	$15.0K	$4.7K	+$3.3K	58% 745-532 (1277)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Liquidavg 36.2¢	$5.0K	$4.2K	-$788.02	42% 73-99 (172)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	FURIAavg 81.2¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$48.71	52% 13552-12399 (25951)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Liquidavg 33.8¢	$3.1K	$4.0K	+$836.61	49% 18595-19019 (37614)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Liquidavg 30¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$55.55	52% 64-58 (122)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Liquidavg 30¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$34.89	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	FURIAavg 66¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$103.6	50% 547-547 (1094)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Liquidavg 32.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$99.45	50% 7252-7398 (14650)
DE delacsynzy1	FURIAavg 58.3¢	$1,000	$968.31	-$31.69	51% 432-415 (847)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Liquidavg 50.3¢	$978.99	$784.5	-$194.49	58% 18397-13498 (31895)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 50.3¢	$569.27	$537.23	-$32.04
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 87¢	$409.72	$247.28	-$162.44
A8 a8999CTR	Liquidavg 32¢	$794.24	$757.01	-$37.23	44% 1073-1363 (2436)
YI yishiwucheng	FURIAavg 77.3¢	$494.92	$535.48	+$40.56	41% 642-914 (1556)
RU Ruler11CTR	Liquidavg 58.8¢	$550.91	$529.35	-$21.56	51% 282-271 (553)
FA facaigegeCTR	Liquidavg 25¢	$305.5	$311.61	+$6.11	48% 380-413 (793)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	Liquidavg 31.7¢	$569.02	$237.58	+$9.85	52% 3674-3330 (7004)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 31.7¢	$113.96	$171	+$26.37
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 82¢	$104	$66.58	-$16.52
poshposh	FURIAavg 72.1¢	$140.08	$156.08	+$16	60% 9362-6344 (15706)
BA BAPEHUKCTR	Liquidavg 29¢	$125.93	$132.44	+$6.51	49% 401-416 (817)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Liquidavg 49.3¢	$104.76	$100.99	-$3.77	53% 176-155 (331)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Liquidavg 12¢	$39.21	$76.79	+$37.58	63% 1075-624 (1699)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Liquidavg 29¢	$48.31	$50.81	+$2.5	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
II iii252	FURIAavg 80.3¢	$14.3K	$31.08	+$3.5K	56% 1093-846 (1939)

pnhct

FURIA

Invested

$30,864.84

Value

$29.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

451-390 (841)

RN1

FURIA

Invested

$23,346.74

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

1337zzz1337

FURIA

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$47.43

Record

52%

207-193 (400)

cruzNBACTR

Liquid

Invested

$4,983.04

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

42%

392-545 (937)

aaaa298

FURIA

Invested

$14,983.34

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

58%

745-532 (1277)

fantasy7788CTR

Liquid

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$788.02

Record

42%

73-99 (172)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

FURIA

Invested

$3,978.46

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$48.71

Record

52%

13552-12399 (25951)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Liquid

Invested

$3,126.09

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$836.61

Record

49%

18595-19019 (37614)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Liquid

Invested

$3,333.3

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$55.55

Record

52%

64-58 (122)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,093.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$34.89

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

FURIA

Invested

$1,953.6

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$103.6

Record

50%

547-547 (1094)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,495.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$99.45

Record

50%

7252-7398 (14650)

delacsynzy1

FURIA

Invested

$1,000

Value

$968.31

PnL

-$31.69

Record

51%

432-415 (847)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Liquid

Invested

$978.99

Value

$784.5

PnL

-$194.49

Record

58%

18397-13498 (31895)

Both legs:

Liquid$569.2750.3¢-$32.04

FURIA$409.7287¢-$162.44

a8999CTR

Liquid

Invested

$794.24

Value

$757.01

PnL

-$37.23

Record

44%

1073-1363 (2436)

yishiwucheng

FURIA

Invested

$494.92

Value

$535.48

PnL

+$40.56

Record

41%

642-914 (1556)

Ruler11CTR

Liquid

Invested

$550.91

Value

$529.35

PnL

-$21.56

Record

51%

282-271 (553)

facaigegeCTR

Liquid

Invested

$305.5

Value

$311.61

PnL

+$6.11

Record

48%

380-413 (793)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

Liquid

Invested

$569.02

Value

$237.58

PnL

+$9.85

Record

52%

3674-3330 (7004)

Both legs:

Liquid$113.9631.7¢+$26.37

FURIA$10482¢-$16.52

poshposh

FURIA

Invested

$140.08

Value

$156.08

PnL

+$16

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

BAPEHUKCTR

Liquid

Invested

$125.93

Value

$132.44

PnL

+$6.51

Record

49%

401-416 (817)

panpidaras1CTR

Liquid

Invested

$104.76

Value

$100.99

PnL

-$3.77

Record

53%

176-155 (331)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Liquid

Invested

$39.21

Value

$76.79

PnL

+$37.58

Record

63%

1075-624 (1699)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Liquid

Invested

$48.31

Value

$50.81

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

iii252

FURIA

Invested

$14,303.01

Value

$31.08

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

56%

1093-846 (1939)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

10 of 23 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.