Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (50%) · FURIA at 75¢ · $176K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
FURIA
6
FURIA 50%
$176.2K
$962.59
74¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFURIA at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA jakepaulthegoat2008 | FURIAavg 74¢ | $163.1K | $164.2K | +$1.1K | 50% 7252-7398 (14650) |
TR TrippleEX | FURIAavg 75¢ | $7.5K | $7.3K | -$200 | 57% 284-210 (494) |
 itwasawholething | FURIAavg 72¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$79.5 | 59% 52-36 (88) |
 hammyandcheeseCTR | Liquidavg 25¢ | $375 | $382.5 | +$7.5 | 56% 357-275 (632) |
DA dancingmonkey1CTR | Liquidavg 27¢ | $243 | $243 | -$13.5 | 54% 1235-1073 (2308) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Liquidavg 27¢ | $231 | $218.4 | -$12.6 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
Invested
$163,051.07
Value
$164.2K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
50%
7252-7398 (14650)
Invested
$7,500
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$200
Record
57%
284-210 (494)
itwasawholethingInvested
$3,815.86
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$79.5
Record
59%
52-36 (88)
hammyandcheeseCTRInvested
$375
Value
$382.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
56%
357-275 (632)
Invested
$243
Value
$243
PnL
-$13.5
Record
54%
1235-1073 (2308)
Invested
$231
Value
$218.4
PnL
-$12.6
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.