Counter-Strike: TheChampionGG vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Group C

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold NAVI Junior (88%) · NAVI Junior at 73¢ · $692 held · ends Nov 12

TheChampionGG28¢NAVI Junior72¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

NAVI Junior

Consensus Traders

NAVI Junior 88%

Total Value

$691.87

Combined PnL

$39.88

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 72.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNAVI Junior at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

NAVI Junior

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

TheChampionGG28%

NAVI Junior73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

NAVI Junior7 traders

Total Value$690.38

Total Shares962

Combined PnL+$39.96

TheChampionGG1 trader

Total Value$1.49

Total Shares7

Combined PnL-$0.08

NAVI Junior — 88%TheChampionGG — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on NAVI Junior. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNAVI Junior 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000NAVI Junior 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	NAVI Junioravg 65.3¢	$305.2	$341.38	+$36.18	48% 145-156 (301)
SH shiifoo	NAVI Junioravg 68.2¢	$112.46	$114.54	+$2.08	62% 1351-818 (2169)
38 38791873984189	NAVI Junioravg 74.3¢	$115.55	$111.27	-$4.28	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
PA Pan9X<$100	NAVI Junioravg 67.2¢	$67.24	$71.5	+$4.26	47% 896-997 (1893)
FE ferdinand2<$100	NAVI Junioravg 66.9¢	$26.8	$27.85	+$1.05	50% 1105-1107 (2212)
FL Flaznorp<$100	NAVI Junioravg 66.3¢	$14.12	$14.8	+$0.68	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
TH thatsabing0<$100	NAVI Junioravg 74.8¢	$9.06	$9.06	+$0	66% 129-67 (196)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	TheChampionGGavg 21.1¢	$1.57	$1.49	-$0.08	37% 470-810 (1280)

Gaditima

NAVI Junior

Invested

$305.2

Value

$341.38

PnL

+$36.18

Record

48%

145-156 (301)

shiifoo

NAVI Junior

Invested

$112.46

Value

$114.54

PnL

+$2.08

Record

62%

1351-818 (2169)

38791873984189

NAVI Junior

Invested

$115.55

Value

$111.27

PnL

-$4.28

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

Pan9X<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$67.24

Value

$71.5

PnL

+$4.26

Record

47%

896-997 (1893)

ferdinand2<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$26.8

Value

$27.85

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

Flaznorp<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$14.12

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$0.68

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

thatsabing0<$100

NAVI Junior

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.06

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

129-67 (196)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

TheChampionGG

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.08

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

Research grade

NeutralNAVI Junior at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

NAVI Junior

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on NAVI Junior. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNAVI Junior 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000NAVI Junior 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that NAVI Junior wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.