Counter-Strike: TEAM GELO vs Rcave (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold TEAM GELO (90%) · TEAM GELO at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

TEAM GELO>99¢Rcave<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TEAM GELO

Consensus Traders

TEAM GELO 90%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$203.29

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 100¢

+50% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralTEAM GELO at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TEAM GELO

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TEAM GELO100%

Rcave0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TEAM GELO9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,110

Combined PnL+$205.27

Rcave1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$1.98

TEAM GELO — 90%Rcave — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on TEAM GELO. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTEAM GELO 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000TEAM GELO 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	TEAM GELOavg 69.7¢	$287.18	$411.75	+$124.57	49% 408-422 (830)
NO NotJump	TEAM GELOavg 50¢	$262.5	$273.53	+$11.03	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
31 319113331313111	TEAM GELOavg 75.6¢	$217.96	$249.27	+$31.31	54% 216-181 (397)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100	TEAM GELOavg 77.4¢	$78.25	$81.99	+$3.74	61% 215-135 (350)
PA Pan9X<$100	TEAM GELOavg 64.9¢	$41.82	$41.41	+$14.77	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
FE ferdinand2<$100	TEAM GELOavg 66¢	$16.1	$24.38	+$8.27	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
FL Flaznorp<$100	TEAM GELOavg 65.5¢	$15.13	$23.08	+$7.95	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
38 38791873984189<$100	TEAM GELOavg 69¢	$6.9	$9.99	+$3.09	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100	TEAM GELOavg 89¢	$4.55	$5.11	+$0.56	55% 172-140 (312)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rcaveavg 6¢	$2	$0.02	-$1.98	39% 1657-2634 (4291)

Gaditima

TEAM GELO

Invested

$287.18

Value

$411.75

PnL

+$124.57

Record

49%

408-422 (830)

NotJump

TEAM GELO

Invested

$262.5

Value

$273.53

PnL

+$11.03

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

319113331313111

TEAM GELO

Invested

$217.96

Value

$249.27

PnL

+$31.31

Record

54%

216-181 (397)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100

TEAM GELO

Invested

$78.25

Value

$81.99

PnL

+$3.74

Record

61%

215-135 (350)

Pan9X<$100

TEAM GELO

Invested

$41.82

Value

$41.41

PnL

+$14.77

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

ferdinand2<$100

TEAM GELO

Invested

$16.1

Value

$24.38

PnL

+$8.27

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

Flaznorp<$100

TEAM GELO

Invested

$15.13

Value

$23.08

PnL

+$7.95

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

38791873984189<$100

TEAM GELO

Invested

$6.9

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$3.09

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Future-Tarot-Trader<$100

TEAM GELO

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.56

Record

55%

172-140 (312)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rcave

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.98

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Research grade

NeutralTEAM GELO at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

TEAM GELO

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on TEAM GELO. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTEAM GELO 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000TEAM GELO 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TEAM GELO wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.