Counter-Strike: STATE vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - United21 Playoffs

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold EYEBALLERS (55%) · EYEBALLERS at 86¢ · $580 held · ends Nov 14

STATE14¢EYEBALLERS86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

EYEBALLERS

Consensus Traders

EYEBALLERS 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$580.13

Combined PnL

-$48.41

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 85.5¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEYEBALLERS at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

EYEBALLERS

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

STATE14%

EYEBALLERS86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

EYEBALLERS6 traders

Total Value$190.83

Total Shares319

Combined PnL-$11.29

STATE5 traders

Total Value$196.85

Total Shares758

Combined PnL-$37.11

EYEBALLERS — 55%STATE — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 58.9¢	$184.59	$192.44	+$7.85	57% 172-131 (303)
└ EYEBALLERS leg	EYEBALLERSavg 58.9¢	$105.61	$137.19	+$31.58
└ STATE leg	STATEavg 33.6¢	$78.98	$55.25	-$23.73
SU suntori	EYEBALLERSavg 62¢	$139.51	$128.26	-$11.25	46% 2530-3008 (5538)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	STATEavg 29.2¢	$80.8	$73.27	-$7.52	37% 996-1673 (2669)
poshposhCTR<$100	STATEavg 31¢	$51.64	$44.21	-$7.43	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	STATEavg 28¢	$42	$39.75	-$2.25	53% 7022-6168 (13190)
PA Pan9X<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 59.8¢	$41.42	$38.28	-$1.19	50% 1579-1603 (3182)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	STATEavg 33¢	$181.18	$37.77	-$20.09	61% 154-100 (254)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 66¢	$13.5	$15	+$1.5	43% 354-460 (814)
TH thatsabing0<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 62¢	$4.39	$4.04	-$0.35	62% 202-122 (324)
FE ferdinand2<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	48% 2045-2201 (4246)
FL Flaznorp<$100	EYEBALLERSavg 57¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	STATEavg 24¢	$1.67	$1.85	+$0.17	48% 269-286 (555)

319113331313111ARB<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$184.59

Value

$192.44

PnL

+$7.85

Record

57%

172-131 (303)

Both legs:

EYEBALLERS$105.6158.9¢+$31.58

STATE$78.9833.6¢-$23.73

suntori

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$139.51

Value

$128.26

PnL

-$11.25

Record

46%

2530-3008 (5538)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

STATE

Invested

$80.8

Value

$73.27

PnL

-$7.52

Record

37%

996-1673 (2669)

poshposhCTR<$100

STATE

Invested

$51.64

Value

$44.21

PnL

-$7.43

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

cigarettesCTR<$100

STATE

Invested

$42

Value

$39.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

7022-6168 (13190)

Pan9X<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$41.42

Value

$38.28

PnL

-$1.19

Record

50%

1579-1603 (3182)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

STATE

Invested

$181.18

Value

$37.77

PnL

-$20.09

Record

61%

154-100 (254)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$13.5

Value

$15

PnL

+$1.5

Record

43%

354-460 (814)

thatsabing0<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$0.35

Record

62%

202-122 (324)

ferdinand2<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

Flaznorp<$100

EYEBALLERS

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

GaditimaCTR<$100

STATE

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

269-286 (555)

Research grade

NeutralEYEBALLERS at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

EYEBALLERS

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that EYEBALLERS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.